202
FXUS63 KAPX 240759
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
359 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND STORMS TODAY; LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF AN
INCH IS POSSIBLE NEAR SAGINAW BAY IN PARTICULAR.
- RAIN/STORMS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- COOLER WEATHER AHEAD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS AN AMPLIFIED MESS...DOMINATED MOST NOTABLY BY
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AND STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE PACNW, WITH SHARP RIDGING IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM OVER ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES GETTING PINCHED BETWEEN FORMER
FEATURE...AND DOWNSTREAM REX BLOCK OFF EASTERN CANADA. SOUTHERN
STREAM IS ALSO CONVOLUTED...WITH 100+KT ZONAL SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
THE SW US, WHICH SPLITS ACROSS THE GULF COAST, THANKS TO INFLUENCE
OF RIDGING TO THE NORTH...BUT TROUGHING OVER THE GULF WATERS. AT THE
SURFACE...TIGHTLY-WOUND, OCCLUDED 989MB SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA IS THE MAIN EVENT, WITH A TRIPLE POINT NEAR THE BORDER WITH
MN AND COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO OK,
WHERE IT TURNS INTO A DRYLINE DOWN INTO TX; A COLD FRONT STRETCHES
FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA BACK INTO THE PANHANDLE OF ID. STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MN THROUGH CENTRAL
MI AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN US AIDING IN EXCELLENT RETURN FLOW ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY AS WELL...WITH SUB-ZERO 850MB TEMPS WRAPPING INTO THE
DAKOTAS BEHIND THE LOW...AND 12C 850MB TEMPS ACROSS WI AHEAD OF IT;
WARMER THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS OK/TX. NOT SURPRISINGLY...LOOKING AT A BROAD AREA OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STRETCHING FROM OK UP THROUGH MN INTO WESTERN
ONTARIO JUST TO OUR WEST. WARM AND SUMMER-LIKE YESTERDAY ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN, WITH SOME LAKE BREEZE COLLISIONS LEADING TO
AGITATED CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AMID A SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE PROFILE, PER THE 0Z/24 SOUNDING.
EXPECT UPSTREAM CONVECTION (OR AT LEAST, WHAT'S LEFT OF IT) TO WORK
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...SLOWLY EXITING WITH TIME
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THINK CONDITIONS COULD STAY
A LITTLE ON THE DREARY/GRUNGY AND COOL SIDE IN ITS WAKE UP HERE...AS
RIDGE AXIS GETS PINCHED OFF TO OUR NORTH...LEAVING FLOW A BIT MORE
NEBULOUS FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A COOL DAY
WITH EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING TOWARD
LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME MOISTURE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
LATE SATURDAY AS A LOBE PIVOTS ACROSS MN...BUT THINK THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WITH THIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD PICK
UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL US IN RESPONSE TO A PUNCH OF PV...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS
THE MIDWEST, INCLUDING NORTHERN MICHIGAN. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...APPEARS WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER SHOT OF AT LEAST SEASONABLE,
IF NOT EVEN SEASONABLY COOL, WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ON
ZONAL PACIFIC/NORTHERN PACIFIC FLOW. BEYOND THIS...GUIDANCE POINTS
TOWARD LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS TRYING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEST COAST,
WHICH SIGNALS SOME POTENTIAL FOR COOLER WEATHER TO SETTLE INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST.
FORECAST DETAILS...
RAIN/STORMS TODAY...THINK ONE OF THE RAIN CONCERNS TODAY IS THAT
THINGS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO MOVE, POTENTIALLY REMAINING
FOCUSED OVER SOME GENERAL AREA NEAR/ALONG AN INVERTED
TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT THAT SHOULD STRETCH OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS
SWATH, GENERALLY FROM LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY (ISH) TO SAGINAW BAY, HAS
THE MOST LIKELY SHOT AT HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS, GENERALLY IN THE
REALM OF 0.25 TO 0.5-INCH; THIS SWATH DOES SCRAPE PARTS OF EASTERN
EMMET AND SOUTHERN CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES FOR HYDRO PURPOSES. HIGHEST
TOTALS (LOCALIZED 1-2IN) WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS (ON TOP OF POTENTIALLY SLOW-MOVING CELLS)...NOTING SOME
HOURLY TOTALS UPSTREAM ATTM AROUND 0.50 UNDER SAID CONDITIONS.
APPEARS MOST LIKELY SHOT AT THIS IDEA WILL BE ACROSS OUR SE (AS
USUAL) WHERE IT COULD WARM ENOUGH FOR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP...THOUGH SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE
COULD BE A HOTSPOT IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLEVOIX COUNTY/BOYNE/EAST
JORDAN. GREATEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AROUND MIDDAY INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE STRIPS OUT
TODAY AS WELL, WHICH, IF IT OCCURS QUICKER, COULD REDUCE STRATIFORM
EFFICIENCY BUT POTENTIALLY BOOST CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY TO SQUEEZE
OUT A LITTLE MORE OF THE MOISTURE IN THIS ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS
(PWATS ABOVE 1-IN).
AS FOR STORMS...NOTHING IS OUTRIGHT SCREAMING AT ME TONIGHT FOR
ANYTHING REALLY BEYOND RUN-OF-THE-MILL THUNDER. THIS BEING
SAID...NOT SURE THAT I LIKE THE IDEA OF MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND A FEW
HUNDRED JOULES OR SO OF EVEN SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF A
LOW/WARM FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH TODAY...HAS ME A LITTLE CONCERNED
THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SPIN-UP NEAR AND SOUTH OF M-55/M-
72 THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY, DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THAT
BOUNDARY ENDS UP SETTING UP.
RAIN/STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY/TUESDAY...INCREASING RETURN FLOW
STRAIGHT OFF THE GULF MONDAY SHOULD AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES, DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM AIR GETS.
ATTM...SIGNALS POINT TOWARD OUR AREA BEING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
FRONT, WHICH SUGGESTS WE COULD HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMPARED TO A COMPLEX OF STORMS...THOUGH THUNDER IS
CERTAINLY ON THE TABLE, GIVEN THE DYNAMIC SETUP EXPECTED. MEDIUM
RANGE PROB GUIDANCE HAS LOW-END CHANCES FOR AN INCH, SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FOR HYDRO PURPOSES.
COOLER TEMPS AHEAD...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TURN MORE SEASONABLE IN
THE COMING DAYS (STARTING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT),
WHICH BRINGS THE THREAT OF FROST/FREEZE BACK INTO PLAY. INITIALLY
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, NOT SURE THAT WE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH INTO THE
GROWING SEASON FOR TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING TO BE A MAJOR
CONCERN...THOUGH ANY TENDER ANNUALS ALREADY PURCHASED FROM NURSERIES
WOULD CERTAINLY BE AT RISK. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TROUGHING TO TRY
TO SETTLE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD AND BEYOND
(CPC HIGHLIGHTING REASONABLY STRONG SIGNALS FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS
GOING INTO EARLY MAY)...WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THINGS
CLOSELY, ESPECIALLY FOR NEXT WEEK, AS WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ACCUMULATE GROWING DEGREE DAYS DESPITE THE COOLER WEATHER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER
MANITOBA DRUMS UP PERSISTENT ESE TO SE FLOW INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. ANTICIPATING CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING, BUT
SHOULD HOLD TO ABOUT 7,000FT INTO DAYBREAK. SMALL CHANCE FOR
SOME SHRA NEAR TVC AND MBL INTO DAYBREAK, BUT NOT ENOUGH THERE
TO DEFINITIVELY PLACE TSRA INTO THE FORECAST. RA AND SHRA
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY LEAD TO
TEMPORARY INCREASES IN WIND AND DECREASES IN CIGS AND VSBYS.
THIS SHOULD CLEAR OUT INTO FRIDAY EVENING, BUT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A LOW CLOUD DECK ALONG WITH BR / FG POTENTIAL ACCOMPANYING
SUB 1,000FT CIGS. AS SUCH, WILL LIKELY SEE IFR TO EVEN LIFR
PREVAILING AT MOST SITED INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ345>347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR LHZ346-347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ341.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ342.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-322.
DISCUSSION...FEF
AVIATION...HAD
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