833
FXUS63 KAPX 250250
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1050 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL W/ LOCALIZED
1"+ AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR
SAGINAW BAY.
- DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BEFORE RAIN/STORM CHANCES
AND COOLER TEMPS MOVE IN BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
AN EXPANSIVE CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW WILL CHURN OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY BEFORE RIDGING WORKS OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, THE CYCLONE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME
INTO THIS WEEKEND AS IT SPINS OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA DUE TO IT
BEING CUT OFF FROM FAVORABLE VORTICITY/TEMPERATURE ADVECTIONS WITH A
VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM AROUND GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS MID-MICHIGAN WILL SLOWLY LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND RELATIVELY LOCALIZED LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WORKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
LOOKS TO BUILD AND NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING
AHEAD, IT APPEARS TROUGHING WORKS BACK IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS BY TUESDAY WITH MULTIPLE WAVES
POTENTIALLY CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST DETAILS:
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ON THE EVOLUTION OF ONGOING
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE POPPED UP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
IN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. MEAGER INSTABILITY ~750 J/KG MUCAPE OR LESS
IN A NARROW TONGUE OF WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTS
IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5KM/BELOW AROUND
-10 C AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ~20 KTS OR LESS, SEVERE STORMS ARE
UNLIKELY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS OUR CWA
WOULD BE NEAR SAGINAW BAY LATER TODAY, AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
LATEST SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (1630Z UPDATE).
THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY GIVEN RECENT
FLOODING, WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS
IN EXCESS OF 1" ARE NEAR THE TOP OF CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX VALUES FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR, HELPING TO SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL --
ESPECIALLY IN ANY STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. WHILE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOCALIZED VS MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE 1"+ OF RAINFALL BY TONIGHT. THAT
SAID, MORE AREAS THAN NOT WILL LIKELY SEE AMOUNTS STAY AROUND 0.5"
OR LESS. SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA HAS LEAD
TO IMPROVEMENT IN FLOOD CONDITIONS ACROSS IMPACTED AREAS, BUT SOME
AREAS COULD TAKE A STEP BACK TODAY -- PRIMARILY IF ANY IMPACTED
AREAS SEE 1"+ OF RAINFALL.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LARGELY END THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM TREKS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND BEHIND, HOWEVER, AND MIST/WIDESPREAD FOG APPEAR INCREASINGLY
LIKELY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING -- ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER. COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY AND LOWS
POTENTIALLY DIPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TO REBOUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE 60S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN IN THE EARLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1048 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MICHIGAN TERMINALS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE 06Z TAF VALID
TIME. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DEGRADE TO IFR WHERE THEY HAVEN'T
DONE SO UNDER LINGERING STRATUS AND FOG. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL
DRYING TAKES PLACE AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
AVERAGE AOB 10KTS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ346-347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ341-342.
DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...PBB
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