209
FXUS63 KAPX 251030
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
630 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GRUNGY/FOGGY TODAY (POSSIBLY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON) AND PERHAPS
AGAIN TONIGHT; MUCH COOLER/MORE SEASONABLE.
- WARMER WITH RAIN/STORMS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
- COOLER WEATHER AHEAD INTO EARLY MAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SW US, WITH AREA OF DEFORMATION/CONFLUENCE
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN CA TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BROAD 523DM UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN STRETCHES FROM EASTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE W UP OF MI, WITH 850MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -8C
OR COLDER ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM HUDSON
BAY TO GA, BECOMING PINCHED OFF OVER EASTERN ONTARIO/LOWER GREAT
LAKES...BETWEEN THIS AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW DOWNSTREAM, JUST OFF THE
NORTHEAST US COAST...GIVING A BIT OF AN OMEGA LOOK TO THE NORTHERN
STREAM. FLOW ACROSS THE SE US STILL A BIT SPLIT...WITH A DISTURBANCE
NOW WELL OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. DEEPER MOISTURE (PWATS 1+IN)
STARTING TO CLEAR NORTHERN MICHIGAN...NOW FOCUSED ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS UPSTREAM PV SWINGS THROUGH
WI WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT IN ITS WAKE (DENOTED BY SHARP BACK EDGE TO
DEEPER CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE EUP AS OF
2Z). MOST OF THE RAIN/PRECIP ACTIVITY NOW FOCUSED TO OUR EAST, ALONG
A DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING FROM FILLING 1001MB SURFACE LOW
OVER EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN...DOWN TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR
SAGINAW...WITH MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
DOWN INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM SAID TRIPLE POINT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MO INTO SOUTHERN
OK (ORGANIZED/STRONGEST CONVECTION DOWN HERE). WARM FRONT WITH OUR
SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM SAGINAW TO NEAR WASHINGTON DC AND OFF THE
COAST. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM...END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
STRETCHES UP TO A LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN CO AND WESTWARD THROUGH
NV...WITH SIGNALS FOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT TRYING TO DEVELOP FROM
HERE TO MN AS OF 0Z, THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SEASONABLY MILD AIR AND
SEASONABLY COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH ALONG THE ROCKIES.
LOBE OF PV SWINGS THROUGH TODAY...WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF UPPER
RIDGING AND POTENTIAL SUBSIDENCE TRYING TO RETURN AND BREAK UP THE
GRUNGE A BIT. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SWIRL OVER CENTRAL CANADA,
SWINGING ONE MORE LOBE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
THOUGH IMPACTS FROM THIS MAY REMAIN TO OUR WEST. NEBULOUS FLOW HERE
IN THE GREAT LAKES COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOGGY/GRUNGY
CONDITIONS GIVEN ANTECEDENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY THAT
MAY NOT BE ABLE TO MIX OUT TOO WELL TODAY. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...TROUGHING WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE SW US, RESULTING
IN PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US THAT SHOULD INTENSIFY RETURN
FLOW THROUGH THE MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST GOING INTO THE START OF
THE WORK WEEK. SHARP PV MAXIMA TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH SIGNALS FOR THIS FEATURE TO TURN
NEGATIVELY TILTED; THIS SUGGESTS A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM, AND NOT
SURPRISED THAT SPC HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTING (FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE
DAYS) AREAS OF CONCERN TO OUR SW FOR MONDAY. EXPECT WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS SITUATION FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL, NOTING THAT STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS SUPPORTIVE OF A GOOD
GULF TAP. (IT SHOULD ALSO BE BREEZY.) COOLER WEATHER FLOODS IN FOR
MIDWEEK AND BEYOND...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE LOBES OF
TROUGHING TO SWING THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS AND REINFORCE THE IDEA OF
COLDER/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR A CHANGE GOING INTO LATE WEEK NEXT
WEEK.
FORECAST DETAILS...
GRUNGE/FOG TODAY/TONIGHT...THINK IT WILL REMAIN GRUNGY AND COOL
TODAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/SHOWERS THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A SUBTLE NIBLET OF PV SWINGS THROUGH. THINGS
SHOULD TRY TO BREAK UP/SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR TRIES
TO WORK ITS WAY IN...WITH SIGNALS FOR THIS TO OCCUR FROM THE
LAKESHORES INLAND, POTENTIALLY LEAVING THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN
IN GRUNGE-LAND INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL
TRY TO MIX UP INTO A STRATO-CU DECK, AND NOT IMPOSSIBLE A FEW
SPRINKLES COULD BE SQUEEZED OUT WITH THESE. OTHERWISE...NORTH(ISH)
FLOW DOWN GRAND TRAVERSE BAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON COULD ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE GRUNGE/DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES PRESENT
IN THE TRAVERSE CITY AREA COMPARED TO ELSEWHERE IN THAT AREA. WINDS
SHOULD SLOWLY START TO DIMINISH GOING INTO TONIGHT, AND WILL EXPECT
A NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING, LAND BREEZES, AND FOG/LOW-STRATUS,
PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT WE PROBABLY WON'T MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ADDED YESTERDAY, ESP DOWN TOWARD SAGINAW BAY WHERE THEY HAD
MORE RAIN (AND IT IS MORE RETICENT TO PERMEATE THE SOIL). THIS IDEA
ALSO SUGGESTS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO TOTALLY CRASH LIKE
THEY WOULD IF WE HAD A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AROUND...THOUGH SOME
AREAS COULD CERTAINLY SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING.
RAIN/STORMS MONDAY/TUESDAY...DYNAMIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...ATTM, MOST LIKELY CROSSING OUR AREA SOMETIME ON TUESDAY.
WOULD EXPECT SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW TO
OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST, AND WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS WILL
EVOLVE AS IT APPROACHES US...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE
MAY STRUGGLE TO GET BETTER INSTABILITY IN OUR AREA TILL CLOSER TO
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY. THIS SUGGESTS WE COULD END UP A
LITTLE MORE STRATIFORM MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH, COMBINED WITH ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/PWATS IN THE PRESENCE OF GOOD FORCING WITH A WARM
FRONT IN THE VICINITY...DOES LEND SOME CONCERN FOR BETTER RAINFALL
POTENTIAL AGAIN. SETUP IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO A MADDOX SYNOPTIC TYPE
HEAVY RAINFALL PATTERN, THOUGH WHETHER THE FOCUS FOR THIS ENDS UP
OVER US OR SLIGHTLY OUT OF OUR AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION.
WARM MONDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COULD
PROMOTE MORE WARMING THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTING. MOST GUIDANCE
ATTM GENERALLY SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, BUT IF
WARM ADVECTION IS MORE AGGRESSIVE HERE AND WE ARE ABLE TO MIX MORE
DEEPLY...850MB TEMPS COULD SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 70S;
S/SE FLOW DOWNSLOPING COULD BOOST TEMPS FURTHER THAN THAT IN SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS, MOST LIKELY IN THE TRAVERSE CITY TO MANISTEE
VICINITY. NOT IMPOSSIBLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST COULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO SOME DEGREE, THOUGH. IF THE
EXPECTED INCOMING MOISTURE STRUGGLES AGAINST ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MORE
THAN EXPECTED, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD COME INTO THE FRAY,
PARTICULARLY WITH STRONGER WINDS IN PLAY (POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED
10-20KTS, PERHAPS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25-35KTS IN THE AFTERNOON).
COLDER TEMPS AHEAD... IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY/TUESDAY
SYSTEM...WILL EXPECT TEMPS TO TUMBLE BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL (NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S; NORMAL LOWS IN THE MID
30S). QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW EXACTLY THE PATTERN EVOLVES
FOR THE MIDDLE/LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK...BUT IF WE END UP WITH ANY
PERIODS OF HIGH PRESSURE AT NIGHT WITH THIS COOLER AIR MASS IN THE
REGION, FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY BECOME A CONCERN.
PERHAPS THE ONE UPSIDE IS THAT THE COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF GROWING DEGREE DAYS THAT CAN BE ACCUMULATED, WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT EXCESSIVE FURTHERING OF THE GROWING SEASON. OVERALL
SIGNALS IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN CURRENTLY SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
COLDER WEATHER TO TRY TO OOZE INTO MIDWEST (THOUGH THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THIS EVOLVES ATTM). IF THE PATTERN
ENDS UP A LITTLE MORE BLOCKY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR TROUGHING TO OVERTAKE THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
WE COULD HANG ONTO OVERALL TROUGHING/COLDER CONDITIONS...WHICH IS
WHAT CPC GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING...AND THINK FROST/FREEZE
CONCERNS WILL BE AT THE FOREFRONT AS WE GO INTO EARLY MAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
LINGERING BR THIS MORNING SHOULD SCOUR OUT, LEADING TO A
REDUCTION IN LIFR CONDITIONS... INITIALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR AS A
STRATUS DECK BEFORE GOING SCT INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH RETURN TO
VFR. LIGHT N TO NE WINDS 10KTS OR LESS TODAY GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. MORE BR / FG POTENTIAL AT ALL SITES LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MBL, WHICH MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH
DRIER AIR INTRUDING TO FEND OFF SATURATION AT THE SURFACE.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LHZ347>349.
DISCUSSION...FEF
AVIATION...HAD
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