540
FXUS63 KAPX 100247
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1047 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS TONIGHT AND DEFINITELY SUNDAY NIGHT
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY MONDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN US...WITH A FEW
LOBES OF ENERGY IN THE FLOW: SOME EMBEDDED WAVES OVER QUEBEC, A
MORE POTENT WAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER
MIDWEST ATTM... AND SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY ZIPPING THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY. NW-SE ORIENTED BCZ STRETCHES BETWEEN UPPER MIDWEST PV
MAX...AND PV MAX PUNCHING ITS WAY ACROSS MT THIS MORNING...AND IS
REFLECTED BY A STATIONARY BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE, STRETCHING FROM
ALBERTA TO WI...ATTACHED TO LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
SOME THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI THAT ALLOWED FOR
SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER (AND EVEN PEA-SIZE HAIL) THIS MORNING ACROSS
NE LOWER MI. BETTER/MORE NORMAL PWATS EXIST AHEAD OF THIS LATTER
FEATURE, AS WELL AS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...THOUGH IT DOES DRY OUT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
(DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 20S AND TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN WI/W.UP
THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT)...GIVING RISE TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS, IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY.
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SAID SURFACE LOW TO SWING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON (COULD ACTUALLY BE A COUPLE SURFACE TROUGHS) AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS LIFTS ON OUT...WHICH COULD SET OFF A FEW MORE HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS OR RUMBLES OF THUNDER THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD
TURN AROUND TO THE NW THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THIS, LEADING TO DRIER
(DESPITE COOLER) CONDITIONS GOING INTO THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR LENDS
ITSELF TO MORE FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS TONIGHT AS WINDS TRY TO
DIMINISH. ANOTHER NIBLET OF ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH ON SUNDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE
REGION MONDAY, THOUGH SOME TROUGHING MAY LINGER ALOFT TO KEEP SOME
WEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY AROUND. EXPECT WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP
GOING INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER PUNCH OF PV THAT WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS
STORMS TO THE AREA. THIS WILL EXIT STAGE RIGHT WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKING TO RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WE WILL
SEE IF THIS IS ABLE TO PREVAIL, THOUGH...GIVEN SIGNALS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA (DETAILS MURKY ATTM)...WHICH COULD KEEP THINGS A LITTLE MORE
ACTIVE GOING INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST DETAILS...
FROST/FREEZE TONIGHT...TEMPS ARE GOING TO BE TRICKY TONIGHT, GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO STAY UP A BIT MORE AND KEEP THINGS FROM
DECOUPLING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE LOWER AND THE EUP. INCOMING AIR
MASS IS COLD/DRY (850MB TEMPS FALLING BELOW 0C, PWATS CLOSING IN ON
THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY MAY)...AND DOES SUPPORT A CHILLY NIGHT
NONETHELESS; THINK LOWS ARE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL (35-
40F) OR SLIGHTLY BELOW (30-35F). THIS BEING SAID...WHERE IT DOES
DECOUPLE TONIGHT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S, WHICH COULD BE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY NOTING THAT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR DECOUPLING LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE OVER NW LOWER, AWAY
FROM THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. SUPPOSE THE SMIDGEN OF RAINFALL THEY
GOT THERE TODAY COULD KEEP THINGS A TOUCH WARMER THAN WORST-CASE-
SCENARIOS, TOO, BUT WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY, DO HAVE TO WONDER IF
THINGS WILL DRY OUT ANYWAY. FOR THOSE INTERESTED...TONIGHT IS
GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE
INVERSION, UNLESS WINDS DECOUPLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COLDER THAN TONIGHT, GIVEN THAT OUR SUNDAY
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY, WITH A TYPICAL
DIURNAL SWING THAT WOULD PULL TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 25-35 DEGREE
RANGE. THINK THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL BE DRY/COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT COLDER TEMPS THAN THAT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AREAS
TO DROP TOWARD 20F (WORST CASE SCENARIO) WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING PROCESSES; SETUP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE, IS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR THIS. THIS WOULD BE A MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE SETUP FOR THE FORMATION OF A TEMPERATURE INVERSION IN THE
LOW-LEVELS.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS SUNDAY/MONDAY...THINK THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY REMAINING IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S WHERE DOWNSLOPING AIDS IN HEATING. HOWEVER...STICKY
WICKET IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO HANG OUT AND
KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER (AND REDUCE MIXING POTENTIAL TO SOME
DEGREE). LAYER IS RELATIVELY SOMEWHAT SHALLOW OVERALL (700-850MB),
AND BETWEEN SOUNDINGS AND LOOKING UPSTREAM AT VISIBLE
SATELLITE...THINK WE WILL BE DEALING WITH MORE OF A SCATTERED
CU/STRATOCU DECK THAT COULD ALLOW MORE SUN THAN ANTICIPATED, AND WE
COULD MIX AND DRY MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
MONDAY...THINK THAT WE WILL HAVE A MUCH BETTER SHOT AT MIXING DEEPLY
ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...AND ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS
TO BOOT (NOTING THAT WE SHOULD HAVE SOMETHING OF A MIXED LAYER LEFT
OVER FROM SUNDAY...AND WE SHOULD, THROUGH THE DAY, LOSE THE MID-
LEVEL CLOUD DECK THAT SEPARATES THIS FROM THE QUITE DRY LAYER
FURTHER ALOFT)... THOUGH NOT IMPOSSIBLE THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH
DIURNAL HEATING TO GENERATE A FEW HIGH-BASED CU. EXPECT IT SHOULD
WARM UP A BIT MORE THAN SUNDAY, WHICH COULD ALSO PULL AFTERNOON RHS
DOWN INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE OR SO. FORTUNATELY...WINDS MONDAY
SHOULD REMAIN REASONABLY LIGHT, WITH EVEN WINDS ALOFT LOOKING TO
STAY AT 20KTS OR LESS FOR MOST OF THE DAY, THOUGH LAKE BREEZES
SHOULD DEVELOP.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS,
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND
SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALSO
RETURN. CLOUD BASES/CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN ABOVE MVFR
THRESHOLDS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BECOMING 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ016-017-
021>023-025>029-031>035-041-099.
FREEZE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-099.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ018-020-024-
030-036-042.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
DISCUSSION...FEF
AVIATION...DJC
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