467
FXUS63 KAPX 101712
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
112 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DIURNAL RAIN SHOWERS TODAY.
- WIDESPREAD FREEZE TONIGHT.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY; MILDER LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS PLAGUED NORTHERN MI THIS EARLY MAY CONTINUES
TO SPIN OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO - QUEBEC TODAY, ALTHOUGH
FINALLY MOVING NORTHEAST WITH TIME AND EVENTUALLY LOOSENING ITS
GRIP ON THE REGION. WEATHER PATTERN TODAY STILL RESONATES WITH
THIS FEATURE, HOWEVER, WITH COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY,
DESPITE THE MEAGER MOISTURE, STEEP 0-3KM LAPSE RATES AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN DIURNAL SHOWERS TODAY,
OCCASIONAL GRAUPEL POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MORE ROBUST LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION. JUXTAPOSITION OF BEST NON-ZERO INSTABILITY AND SHORT
WAVE ENERGY AIDED LIFT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT
INTO PORTIONS OF NE LOWER AND THEN E UPPER AS WELL. THAT BEING
SAID, NOTING OTHER AREAS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST LOWER MI MAY
HAVE NON-ZERO INSTABILITY. SOME OF THE PROBS FOR >0.01" OF RAIN
ARE MORE EXPANSIVE THAN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. THUS, WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED FOR SHOWER COVERAGE TO BE A LITTLE MORE THAN
WHAT ULTIMATELY GOES INTO THE POP FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN
THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY LOW WET BULBS, A FEW WET
SNOW FLAKES/SHOWERS MIXING IN CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST, IMPINGING ON NORTHERN MI.
CONSEQUENTLY, COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, THANKS TO
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS WELL. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER SEEING
TEMPERATURES <32F FOR A NUMBER OF HOURS. ADDITIONAL FROST FREEZE
CONCERNS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A MILDER/WARMER TREND
(LATE WEEK AND BEYOND) LIKELY EVACUATES THESE CONCERNS FOR A
WHILE.
NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY CRASHES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON THIS
EVENING AND RIDES OVER TOP OF A POTENT UPPER HIGH/HEAT DOME
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST (90S AND 100S
FOR OUR FRIENDS IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST). THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN MI
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. INITIAL BLOSSOMING OF PRECIPITATION
LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE INITIAL DPVA AND
WAA OF THE INCOMING UPPER LOW. THEN SUBTLE ENERGY ON THE BACK
EDGE OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW LINGERS PRODUCING SHOWERY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ~0.25"-0.50" OF RAIN WITH THIS EVENT, WITH
MORE REFINEMENT IN THE COMING SHIFTS, ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS
FEATURE HAS TRENDED NORTH FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS NOW (IN SOME
GUIDANCE MORE THAN OTHERS). WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AS WELL AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS NOT ONLY ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS BUT WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND WINDS
SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.
ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A WARMER PERIOD OF WEATHER LATE WEEK
AND BEYOND WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS. FOR INSTANCE, LREF PROBS FOR >65F MAX TEMPS INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI.
THAT BEING SAID, WITHIN THE ENS GUIDANCE THERE IS SOME DAY TO DAY
VARIABILITY SO WE'LL HAVE TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS MOVING
FORWARD. OUR CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 ON FRIDAY WITH 70S THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
CIGS FLOAT BETWEEN 3000-5000FT TODAY, THOUGH LIKELY PREVAILING VFR
WITH OCCASIONAL DIPS TO MVFR. CLOUDS MOST LIKELY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...AND REDEVELOP AROUND MID-MORNING MON, LIKELY VFR AGAIN.
LOW CHANCE FOR IFR/BR(?) TO DEVELOP AT CIU LATE TONIGHT (9-12Z) BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ATTM TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. VCSH/SHRA (MIX WITH SN
AT PLN/CIU?) POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH TS POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESP
BETWEEN 20-02Z AT APN. GENERALLY NW WINDS 5-15KTS TODAY GUSTING 15-
25KTS (COULD BE AS HIGH AS 30KTS AT MBL THIS AFTERNOON?)...DROPPING
INTO TO LIGHT/VRB OVERNIGHT WITH LAND BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL TAF
SITES. WINDS MORE NNW TO N TO START MON, REMAINING LIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN VICINITY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-099.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...FEF
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