132
FXUS63 KAPX 111440
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1040 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS CONTINUE TONIGHT.
- SHOWERS SPREAD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES BUILD WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1039 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
1027MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH ANTICYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. WEAK
BOUNDARY RUNS FROM LAKE ERIE WEST ACROSS ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI/
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA; 1021MB FRONTAL WAVE ALONG THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA
BORDER. EAST-WEST ORIENTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...NOT
DOING MUCH OUTSIDE OF A NARROW BAND OF AC/CI ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.
BUT OVERALL HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO RISE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO/
UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES (+30M 500MB HEIGHT RISE AT APX).
MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...ALSO AN AREA OF HIGH BASED ST ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/WESTERN UPPER WHICH IS STARTING TO ERODE INTO A
SC DECK. ALSO GETTING SOME DIURNAL SC POP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND
ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORE OF LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS
ARE HIGHER (RELATIVE TO SUB-ZERO 925MB TEMPERATURES). INVERSION
HEIGHT ON 1200Z APX SOUNDING AT 800MB...MUCH LOWER THAN THE 660MB 24
HOURS AGO.
DIURNAL CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND MOSTLY AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF NORTHERN LOWER WHERE DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHER...WITH
MORE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER INLAND. LOWER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP VERTICAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LESS THAN SUNDAY AND THUS A
LOWER PROBABILITY OF SEEING SHOWERS POP UP. WILL SEE LAKE BREEZES
DEVELOP TODAY WITH A WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY
FROM AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S...10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR 11
MAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
MIDLEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGHING WITH A CLOSED LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO DRAW COOL CP AIR INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE, SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE COOL AND QUIET WEATHER TODAY AS
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. AN
EMBEDDED MIDLEVEL HEIGHT DISTURBANCE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL DEVELOP
A SURFACE CLIPPER AND MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE UPSTREAM SUBSIDENCE EXTINGUISHES ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL MIRROR THE FIRST HALF AS UPSTREAM
MIDLEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE PACIFIC WILL RETURN
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY RESULTING IN PERIODIC CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BIGGEST STORY
WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE THE RETREAT OF COOL CP AIR TO THE
NORTH AND A PACIFIC AIR MASS INFLUENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
CAUSING SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AS
WE HEAD INTO MID MAY.
FORECAST DETAILS:
FROST CONCERNS TONIGHT... SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND QUIET/DRY WEATHER TODAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING, KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH ADIABATIC HEATING PROCESSES. AFTERNOON
MIXING HEIGHTS ABOVE 5000 FT AGL WILL CAUSE SURFACE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW 20S AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS
INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME, BUT LAKE BREEZE PROCESSES WILL LEAD TO SHIFTING WINDS AND
COULD CREATE A SMALL WINDOW OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES LEADING TO
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES FALLING NEAR FREEZING
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWER.
SHOWERS SPREAD THIS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE AFOREMENTIONED
CLIPPER WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY SATURATE PROFILES FROM
THE TOP DOWN, ALLOWING RAIN TO HIT THE SURFACE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STABLE
PROFILES WITH MOSTLY STABLE LAPSE RATES. AS A RESULT, THE MAJORITY
OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, BUT MOST OF
THE CWA SHOULD ONLY EXPECT RAINFALL OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
UPSTREAM RIDGING WILL SLOWLY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT THIS
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL QPF.
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION... THE WELL-ADVERTISED
TROUGHING PATTERN DELIVERING TODAY'S COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY
PIVOT EASTWARD AFTER THE MIDWEEK CLIPPER DEPARTS. MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE MIDWEST, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION AROUND THE SATURDAY TIMEFRAME FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS RELATIVELY WEAK STORMS THIS SATURDAY, BUT HIGHER
INSTABILITY AND MORE FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS COULD LEAD TO SOME
STRONGER STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
MORE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER JUST SOME PASSING HIGHER BASED CUMULUS
TODAY, AND SOME INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY, WITH LOCAL AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...JPB
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...MSB
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