305
FXUS63 KAPX 121741
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
141 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY.
-SEASONABLY WARMER WEATHER BUILDS LATER THIS WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
THE MIDLEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGHING REGIME THAT LOCKED THE NORTHWOODS IN
WITH COLD CP AIR INFLUENCE HAS SHIFTED ITS AXIS OVER THE MOUTH OF
THE ST. LAWRENCE. WARMER LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION PIVOTING MID-MAY INTO A SEASONABLY WARMER
PATTERN. AT THE SAME TIME, MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SPREADS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION FOR THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
UPSTREAM RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRY
THINGS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
QUIET THIS THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS FRIDAY AS A TROUGH AND ATTACHED LOW
OVER CENTRAL CANADA EXTENDS A BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD, BUT THE MAJORITY
OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AFTER THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION REMAINS AROUND THE
MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME NEXT WEEK AS LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES DEPICT A
LOW DEVELOPING LEE OF THE AMERICAN ROCKIES AND LIFTING THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST.
FORECAST DETAILS:
SHOWERS SPREAD TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY AS UPPER-LEVEL PROFILES BECOME SATURATED. VIRGA WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THIS MORNING BEFORE THE ENTIRE COLUMN IS SATURATED
AND OBSERVATIONAL RAINFALL SPREADS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OCCLUDING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN, WHICH INDICATES THE LEADING EDGE
OF RAIN WILL BE STRATIFORM, FOLLOWED BY A QUICK PAUSE IN
PRECIPITATION BEFORE MORE CONVECTIVE-DRIVEN SHOWERS FOLLOW THIS
EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH ENOUGH
ENERGY TO PRODUCE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER TONIGHT. BACKSIDE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BUT LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL QPF IS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SCOURS OUT MOISTURE. RAINFALL
TOTALS REMAIN BETWEEN A GENERAL 0.20" TO HALF INCH FOR THE ENTIRE
EVENT.
SEASONABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES... THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES THIS THURSDAY. H8 TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY NEAR FREEZING WILL WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S FOR MOST AREAS. ENSEMBLES SHOW A RELATIVELY TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT AT THE END OF THE WEEK, WHICH COULD CAUSE A WIDE RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME BETWEEN THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 70S. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE THIS WEEKEND DEPICTS A FEW
WAVES OF ENERGY CONTINUING ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK LEE OF
THE ROCKIES AND MAKES ITS WAY THE THE MIDWEST AROUND THE MONDAY
TIMEFRAME. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND DEW POINTS SURGING INTO THE
60S COULD GENERATE SOME STRONGER STORMS AND POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL
WEATHER FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS (UNDER HEAVIER RAIN) MOST LIKELY FOR
CIU/PLN BUT COULD DROP TO MVFR AT MBL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BRISK
SE/S WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 25-35KTS.
INITIAL ROUND OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TS EXITS EASTWARD THRU 20Z, WITH
SOME DIURNAL MVFR/VFR CU DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE...WITH A SECOND
ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING IN AROUND 20-22Z...ALONG WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW TO PINWHEEL
ACROSS TIP OF THE MITT OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHTER/VRB WINDS
POSSIBLE AT PLN AND PERHAPS CIU/TVC/MBL AS WELL...THOUGH EXPECT
LARGELY E WINDS TURNING MORE N AT CIU OVERNIGHT...WITH MORE
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MI TAF SITES, BECOMING NW
WITH TIME AS SURFACE LOW DEPARTS, AND STRENGTHENING BACK TO
15-20KTS, GUSTING 25-30KTS. CIGS REMAIN IFR/LIFR FROM LATE
TONIGHT THRU WED AM WITH CONTINUED DZ/BR BECOMING MORE SHRA LATE.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345-346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-
322.
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...FEF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page