356
FXUS63 KAPX 121825
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
225 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT, PERHAPS
ACCOMPANIED BY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS EVENING.
-DRIZZLY, DAMP, DREARY, AND DOWNRIGHT COLD WEDNESDAY.
-SEASONABLY WARMER WEATHER BUILDS LATER THIS WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
SHARP NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTRUDING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, ACCOMPANIED BY WELL-DEFINED, ALBEIT, BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO LIFT INTO THE REGION, BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY STALL OUT ALONG A TVC TO HTL LINE AT BEST. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND PERHAPS THUNDER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH STRATIFORM PRECIP BUILDING WITHIN
THE COLD CONVEYOR OF THE SYSTEM. RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DRY SLOTTING CONVECTION
ANTICIPATED TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND MAKE A RUN AT
NORTHWEST LOWER LATER TONIGHT, BUT WITH WANING INSTABILITY, SHOULD
STRUGGLE QUITE A BIT. BACKSIDE MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL PROLONG SHOWER CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE 500MB RIDGING
FORCES THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESTORES
METEOROLOGICAL ORDER GOING INTO THURSDAY. RESULT WILL BE A CLEARING
AND CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND. TROUGHING CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL CREST THE RIDGE AXIS AND SHOULD HOLD SUPPRESSED TO
THE NORTH... WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO HOLD INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. THAT BEING SAID, THIS WILL SET UP ZONAL FLOW
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION POTENTIAL
GIVEN WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS WAVE, AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE LAID DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SUNDAY BEFORE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS
AND LIFTS NORTH AND EAST WITH SPLIT FLOW, ALLOWING FOR AMPLE
MOISTURE RETURN AND POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS:
REST OF TODAY THRU WEDNESDAY: SHOWER COVERAGE SET TO RAMP UP ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT
OF ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME HAS BEEN STYMIED BY STOUT LOW LEVEL DRY
LAYER, AND ONGOING MIXING ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER IS NOT HELPING
MATTERS EITHER... RHS ALREADY TANKING INTO THE UPPER 30S AS OF 11AM.
NONETHELESS, TOP-DOWN SATURATION WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT, LEADING TO
A COLD, OCCASIONALLY WET FINISH TO THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY'S INTRUSION TO THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE PROCESSES TO MATERIALIZE THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER, SO SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT.
STRONG FLOW ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME OF THESE DOWNPOURS / EMBEDDED
STORMS TO BE A TOUCH GUSTY, BUT WITH WANING INSTABILITY,
ANTICIPATION IS THAT THIS CONVECTION LIKELY REMAINS SUB-SEVERE,
WHICH GELS PRETTY WELL WITH THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK THAT PINS A BROAD
MARGINAL RISK TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS WISCONSIN, ILLINOIS, AND
INDIANA. ADDITIONAL REGION OF NOTE... WITH MAXIMIZED FRONTO ALONG
THE DEPARTING "TROWAL" WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN AREA OF MUCH MORE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL... PERHAPS TO THE TUNE OF 0.50"+ OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN, ACROSS MACKINAC COUNTY AND INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT. SHOWER
COVERAGE TAPERS OFF CONSIDERABLY LATER TONIGHT, THOUGH SATURATION
WILL FINALLY BE OF NO SHORTAGE... SO ANTICIPATING A CLOUDY, DRIZZLY,
FOGGY NIGHT THAT WILL CARRY INTO TOMORROW AMID THE OCCASIONAL
SHOWER... AND AS SUCH, THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT WILL BE SUFFERING.
THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOWS ABOVE FREEZING
TONIGHT, BUT AT THE COST OF STONEWALLING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S ACCOMPANIED BY A BREEZE COME WEDNESDAY. NOT THAT ANYONE IS
KEEPING TRACK OR ANYTHING, BUT THIS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
REST OF THE PERIOD: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PUTTING
AN END TO THE SOGGINESS FROM WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY, AND WILL LEAD
TO A CLEARING TREND AMID FAR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THAN THE
DUCK-FRIENDLY WEATHER WE ARE ABOUT TO SEE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO PEAK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE BOARD. AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL ZIP
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THROW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
REGION, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME
THUNDER LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE REST OF
SATURDAY TRENDING DRIER AT THIS JUNCTURE. RAIN CHANCES SET TO RETURN
SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK AS A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR DEEPER
GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD BUILDS... NO CLEAR SIGNAL AS TO HOW
HEAVY THIS RAIN WILL BE, BUT CERTAINLY ON THE TABLE FROM A PATTERN
RECOGNITION / CONCEPTUAL STANDPOINT. MORE DETAILS TO COME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS (UNDER HEAVIER RAIN) MOST LIKELY FOR
CIU/PLN BUT COULD DROP TO MVFR AT MBL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BRISK
SE/S WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 25-35KTS.
INITIAL ROUND OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TS EXITS EASTWARD THRU 20Z, WITH
SOME DIURNAL MVFR/VFR CU DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE...WITH A SECOND
ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING IN AROUND 20-22Z...ALONG WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW TO PINWHEEL
ACROSS TIP OF THE MITT OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHTER/ARB WINDS
POSSIBLE AT PLN AND PERHAPS CIU/TVC/MBL AS WELL...THOUGH EXPECT
LARGELY E WINDS TURNING MORE N AT CIU OVERNIGHT...WITH MORE
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MI TAF SITES, BECOMING NW
WITH TIME AS SURFACE LOW DEPARTS, AND STRENGTHENING BACK TO
15-20KTS, GUSTING 25-30KTS. CIGS REMAIN IFR/LIFR FROM LATE
TONIGHT THRU WED AM WITH CONTINUED DZ/BR BECOMING MORE SHRA LATE.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LHZ348-346. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LHZ348>349. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LOOMS-341- 342-344>346. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321- 322.
DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...FEF
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