454
FXUS63 KAPX 131038
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
638 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-LINGERING DRIZZLE/SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
-OVERALL QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY BUILDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING WITH ITS AXIS OVER LAKE HURON PROGRESSING EASTWARD.
UPSTREAM RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWOODS LATER TODAY, PROVIDING ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
TO DRY OUT SURFACE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE BASED
LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST, THEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE
ACROSS THE CWA RESULTING IN BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERING ITSELF OVER
THE MIDWEST THURSDAY.
DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS THURSDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME, ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DEVELOP ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
WHILE WEAKENING. ENOUGH ENERGY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TO SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE-DRIVEN SHOWERS THIS FRIDAY.
THE MIDLEVEL PATTERN TURNS MORE ZONAL THIS WEEKEND OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS, WITH WARMER AIR BUILDING OVER THE NORTHWOODS AS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TURNS TO A MORE PACIFIC AIR MASS
INFLUENCE RATHER THAN THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH. ADDITIONAL
WAVES OF ENERGY CONTINUE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND
CONVECTION AT TIMES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY THIS MONDAY.
FORECAST DETAILS:
LINGERING DRIZZLE/SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO BRING QUIET WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY... FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING DEPICT PROFILES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURATED IN THE LOWEST 5000FT AGL AS
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE DRIES OUT CONDITIONS ALOFT. A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOW LEVEL OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST
THIS MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SCOURS OUT ALL RAINFALL.
WIDESPREAD BREEZY WINDS BUILD AROUND 15Z TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTS REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. 850MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL ONLY BUILD SURFACE HIGH TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S TODAY VIA ADIABATIC HEATING
PROCESSES. THURSDAY APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST CHARACTERISTICS OF
"PLEASANT WEATHER" AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER'S ITSELF
OVER THE MIDWEST AND RETURNS SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND HIGHS
AROUND 60 DEGREES.
OVERALL QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY BUILDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MAY...
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE-DRIVEN SHOWERS RETURN FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE LIFTS THROUGH ONTARIO. BOUNDARY FORMATION
SEEMS SOMEWHAT DISHEVELED AS IT TRAVERSES ACROSS THE REGION,
LEADING TO ONLY A GENERAL TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF TOTAL
RAINFALL. THE MIDLEVEL PATTERN TURNS MORE ZONAL OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A WEAK JET MAX OVERHEAD. MOST OF
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY, BUT ADDITIONAL
LINGERING SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACK ACROSS MICHIGAN MONDAY FROM A
THIRD SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING UPSTREAM. DEW POINTS SURGE
INTO THE 60S WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONGER
STORMS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTFUL WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/MIST ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE
COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE ANTICIPATED IMPROVEMENT BACK
TO VFR AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY TODAY THROUGH EARLY-MID EVENING, SUSTAINED 10-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25-35 KTS. WINDS DIMINISH LATE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ345-
346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LHZ347>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...MJG
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