405
FXUS63 KAPX 132329
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
729 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-DUCK-FRIENDLY WEATHER TO CARRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH GLOOMY SKIES AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE TAPERING TONIGHT.
-DRY AND PLEASANT THURSDAY WITH SOME FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS.
-VARIOUS RAIN CHANCES SCATTERED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD COINCIDING WITH THE FIRST BIG TIME WARMUP OF
THE WARM SEASON ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE
HURON WILL CONTINUE TO BE FORCED EASTWARD BY RIDGING AMPLIFYING OVER
THE PLAINS. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL EVENTUALLY FOLD OVER THE
REGION AS A WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW MAKES AN ATTEMPT TO
CREST THE RIDGE, GENERALLY SHEARING ITSELF OUT OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
BUT THROWING A BOUNDARY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE RE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST AS THE TROUGH
BECOMES MORE LONGWAVE DOMINANT. RESULT WILL BE A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
THAT ALLOWS FOR THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD. EJECTION
OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT RETURN FLOW, WHICH WILL DRAW
MARKEDLY WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY NEXT
WEEK, AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES.
DETAILS:
DREARY. CLAMMY. CHILLY. DUCK WEATHER. HOWEVER WARM WEATHER
ENTHUSIASTS WANT TO DESCRIBE THE REST OF TODAY, BE ASSURED THERE
LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH GLOOMY SKIES AND, FOR THOSE IN THE INTERIOR
NORTHERN LOWER TERRAIN TO NORTHEAST LOWER, OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN. TEMPERATURES SET TO REMAIN STONEWALLED IN
THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART. CURRENT GAZE AT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS
CLOUD COVER SCOURING OUT ACROSS WISCONSIN AND AS CLOSE AS MUNISING
IN THE CENTRAL U.P., A TREND WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION AS SUBSIDENCE INDUCED BY AN OBLONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO KANSAS MOVES
EASTWARD WITH THE BUILDING OF 500MB HEIGHT RISES COMMENCING. RESULT
WILL BE A CLEARING TREND THAT SHOULD KICK OFF BY THIS EVENING ACROSS
NW LOWER, EVENTUALLY, CARRYING INTO NORTHEAST LOWER BY SUNRISE
TOMORROW. ON PAPER, THIS COULD BE A FROST / FREEZE SETUP... BUT
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
AND A LACK OF MIXING TO FORCE LOWER DEWPOINTS TO THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING MUCH BELOW 35 ACROSS
THE REGION... WITH MOST GUIDANCE CAPPING LOWS AT 40 ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST LOWER. AS SUCH, WILL ELECT TO MESSAGE PATCHY FROST
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO DIVING INTO A FULL-BLOWN HEADLINE
FOR FROST / FREEZE.
FOR THURSDAY, AMPLE SUBSIDENCE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT
OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO A QUICK CLEARING TREND OF ANY CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL COMMENCE WHAT WILL BE A WELCOME STRETCH
OF MARKEDLY WARMER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. AIDED BY PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW, ANTICIPATING RHS TO DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION, WHICH DOES RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IF
THE DRIER MEMBERS OF GUIDANCE DEPICTING RHS COMING CLOSE TO 25 HIT.
HIGHS TOMORROW LIKELY JUMP INTO THE 60S, PERHAPS PUSHING 70 SOUTH OF
M-72, WHICH, WITH BRILLIANT SUNSHINE, WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT DRYING
CONDITIONS. NONETHELESS, FIRE DANGER WILL CERTAINLY BE GREATER THAN
NORMAL... BUT FOLLOWING COORDINATION WITH LAND MANAGEMENT, HAVE
DECIDED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MESSAGING IS A NO-GO FOR THURSDAY.
CONSIDERING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WINDS TO COME INTO PLAY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED LOWER RHS, CERTAINLY WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD, MOISTURE RETURN WILL COALESCE AHEAD OF AN INTRUDING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY DRUM UP SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES SATURDAY. OVERALL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO THE PSEUDO-STALLING OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERHEAD FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RESULT WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER AND
STORM POTENTIAL SATURDAY... WITH MINIMAL SYNOPTIC FORCING TO PLAY
WITH ASIDE FROM THIS FRONT. EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY COMES INTO
QUESTION CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE SLUG IS A BIT ON THE WEAKER SIDE,
BUT STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO AID IN
INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT DESPITE MINIMAL MOISTURE (SATURDAY DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 40S). THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO SAG SOUTHWARD
INTO DOWNSTATE COME SUNDAY, BUT THIS TREND WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
AMPLIFYING RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW WILL FORCE THIS FRONT BACK
NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR WHAT WILL
BE THE FIRST SUMMER-LIKE FEEL THE AREA HAS SEEN IN WHO-KNOWS HOW
LONG AGO (NOT THAT ANYONE IS TRACKING OR ANYTHING, BUT THE LAST 80
DEGREE DAY IN GAYLORD WAS OCTOBER 5TH, 2025, OR 221 DAYS AGO, OR 7
MONTHS AND 9 DAYS AGO).
CURRENT GUIDANCE TRENDS INDICATE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL FOCUS
TO THE WEST ACROSS MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN, AND IOWA, AND THUS WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION... LEAVING NORTHERN MICHIGAN FIRMLY IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF STRONG SW RETURN FLOW. MOST GUIDANCE HAS NORTHERN
LOWER JUMPING INTO THE 80S, WITH THE WARMEST MODELS TOUCHING 90 (!)
IN SOME PLACES MONDAY, WHILE OUR FRIENDS NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE
HOLD IN THE 70S. IF THE 850MB TEMPS ACROSS LONG TERM GUIDANCE OF 14
TO 18 C ARE ON THE MONEY (CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE), A FULLY
MIXED PROFILE SHOULD YIELD SURFACE AIR TEMPS GENERALLY 83 TO 91
DEGREES FOR MONDAY. LONG-TERM GUIDANCE IS PRETTY MUCH ON BOARD WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIVING CONVECTION TO OUR WEST INTRUDING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WHICH, ON PAPER, SHOULD RETURN AN APPRECIABLE
RAIN CHANCE TO THE REGION... PERHAPS EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME
PLACES. MORE DETAILS TO COME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
MVFR CIGS AT APN THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS. LOWER
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE/EXIT TONIGHT, WITH LITTLE CLOUD
COVER FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY. STILL MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT
APN, AND APN/CIU COULD ALSO SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO. SOMEWHAT
BREEZY NW TO N WINDS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LHZ347>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...JZ
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