029
FXUS63 KAPX 141031
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
631 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-QUIET AND OVERALL PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY.
-SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES BUILD THIS WEEKEND.
-PERIODIC CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FAVORING NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
SHORTWAVE MIDLEVEL TROUGHING THAT DELIVERED ACTIVE WEATHER THE
PREVIOUS TWO DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD, ALLOWING UPSTREAM
RIDGING TO MOVE OVER THE MIDWEST. MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND WARMER
PACIFIC AIR MASS INFLUENCE WILL RETURN SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A SECOND SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CANADIAN PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
TOWARD SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. AN ATTACHED SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS THIS FRIDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY HAS ENOUGH ENERGY TO CONTINUE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS, BUT MOST
OF THE CWA WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
THE MIDLEVEL PATTERN TURNS SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
WEEKEND. A FEW EMBEDDED HEIGHT DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE PERIODIC
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SATURDAY REMAINS DRY OVERALL, BUT A MIDLEVEL BAROCLINIC
SETUP TO OUR SOUTH COULD SPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS TO A FEW PARTS OF THE
CWA. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION REMAINS AROUND THE
MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME AS ANOTHER WAVE DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND STORMS.
FORECAST DETAILS:
QUIET AND OVERALL PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WITH ATTACHED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN WHAT CAN BE DESCRIBED
AS THE BEST DAY THIS WEEK IN TERMS OF "PLEASANT WEATHER." SKIES WILL
CLEAR BY 12Z THIS MORNING AS WARM(ER) H8 TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS MOVE INTO THE REGION. ADIABATIC HEATING PROCESSES WILL WARM
SURFACE HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
VARIABLE WINDS. THE ONLY POTENTIAL CONCERN TO MONITOR IS THE TYPICAL
AFTERNOON MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DEW POINTS NEAR FREEZING TODAY
WILL DROP MINIMUM RH’S TO THE LOW 30S AND POTENTIALLY NEAR CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR THE TYPICALLY DRIER AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER.
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES BUILD THIS WEEKEND... SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB AS 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM, ADVECTING
A WARMER PACIFIC AIR MASS INTO THE MIDWEST. LOW LEVEL TEMPS IN THE
LOW SINGLE DIGITS TODAY WILL QUICKLY REACH THE MID TEENS BY
SATURDAY, CAUSING SURFACE SURFACE HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S. WARMEST DAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON MONDAY DUE TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM LATER
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER
ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
PERIODIC CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FAVORING NEXT WEEK... AFOREMENTIONED ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD SOMEWHAT QUIET. EMBEDDED HEIGHT WAVES COMBINED WITH A
BAROCLINIC SET UP TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST, BUT MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE GENERATED BY THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH LEE OF THE AMERICAN ROCKIES AS IT LIFTS
THROUGH THE MIDWEST. STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW, FAVORABLE MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES, AND MODERATE CAPE VALUES INDICATE A MODERATE CHANCE OF SOME
EMBEDDED SEVERE WEATHER COMBINED WITH SEVERAL INDICES SUPPORTING
HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME, IT IS TOO EARLY TO ESTIMATE IMPACTS,
BUT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS WE HEAD INTO MID
MAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 629 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY BECOMING CALM THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...MJG
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