518
FXUS63 KAPX 150343
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1143 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY/ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
POTENTIAL.
- WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK/MORE
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SATURDAY?
- MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN FEATURES A
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH HEADING TOWARD THE EAST COAST...SHORT
WAVE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND A COUPLE OF PACIFIC-ORIGIN
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FARTHER UPSTREAM WITH THE LEAD WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING INTO WISCONSIN/
MICHIGAN HAS PLENTY OF DRY AIR AIR WITH IT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL
TROUGHING GETTING REPLACED BY WARM ADVECTION WITH A SHARP THERMAL
RIDGE/STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPANNING THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM
JAMES BAY SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES AND DOWN INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
EASTERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST AND INTO ATLANTIC CANADA FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
APPROACHING NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH
WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER
SHEARED OUT VORTICITY CENTER/JET MAX ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. BUT
THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN STARTS TO BUCKLE THIS WEEKEND WITH
TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHICH WILL PUSH HEIGHTS
UPWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY. 582DAM 500MB HEIGHTS INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY WHICH IS ABOVE THE THE PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO
CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID MAY. THIS BASIC IDEA OF WESTERN TROUGHING/FLAT
EASTERN RIDGING SHOULD HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE HEIGHT FALLS
ADVANCE EASTWARD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY GIVES WAY TONIGHT
ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT IS LOSING ITS EASTWARD PUSH AS MAIN
DYNAMICS/HEIGHT FALLS LIFT NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO. SECONDARY RIPPLE
PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WILL TRY AND NUDGE ANOTHER
EAST-WEST ORIENTED BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A SAY IN SUNDAY SENSIBLE
WEATHER (BOTH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION)...BUT A STRONGER SURGE
OF WARMTH LOOKS TO BE IN THE OFFING FOR MONDAY WHICH MAY ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER (THUNDERSTORMS) FOR THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY/ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
POTENTIAL: TAIL END OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
ONTARIO WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. NARROW
BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWER
MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES BUT AT
THIS POINT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL FROM A QPF STANDPOINT. A
POTENTIALLY LARGER CONCERN IS ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WITH INCREASING
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 20-30+MPH. DEW POINTS
WILL LIKELY BE COMING UP A BIT SO RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ULTIMATELY
DEPEND ON HOW WARM WE CAN GET WHICH MAY BE TEMPERED BY EARLY CLOUD
COVER; GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE WHICH RESULTS IN
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT EAST OF THE I-75
CORRIDOR.
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK/MORE ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER SATURDAY? THE FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY HAS A
COUPLE OF ELEMENTS TO IT. THERE IS THE CHANCE THERE WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS AROUND SATURDAY MORNING...AND WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS MOVING
IN WILL NEED TO CLEAR OUT AND HEAT THINGS UP TO GET RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO A RESPECTABLE LEVEL. ASSUMING THAT OCCURS
HIGHS SHOULD GET TO AROUND 80 DEGREES INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...
WHICH WOULD PUSH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN BELOW 30
PERCENT. THIS COMBINED WITH ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS (THOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS FRIDAY) WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
BIT COOLER SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH SECONDARY
COLD FRONT ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TRENDS STILL SUPPORT ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS SUNDAY. MONDAY COULD BE THE REAL WARM DAY WITH THE
FRONT GETTING PUSHED BACK TO THE NORTH. LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE 70S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND 80S IN NORTHERN LOWER.
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL:
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND EXTENDS
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN/MINNESOTA SUNDAY. HEATING AND
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST LOWER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING NORTH/NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WARMER
AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS SPREADS IN. BEST FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST BUT WILL SEE IF SOME KIND OF LINEAR STORM MODE MOVES
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY EVENING. SPC DAY 5 (MONDAY) 15% SEVERE
PROBABILITY EXTENDS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. MAYBE CIU/PLN SEE A SHOWER IN THE VICINITY, BUT MORE
LIKELY NOT. CLOUDS DECREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY. LLWS AT CIU LATE FRIDAY EVENING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LSZ321.
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...JZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page