068
FXUS63 KAPX 151030
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
630 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-A FEW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ALONG WITH ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
-TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
A SHORTWAVE MIDLEVEL RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS DIRECTLY OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE, CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER
THE CANADIAN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS FRIDAY
WHILE WEAKENING. THE ATTACHED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A
CONNECTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY, FAVORING THE EASTERN UPPER
PENINSULA.
THE MIDLEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS TURNING MORE SOMEWHAT ZONAL
THIS WEEKEND WITH TROUGHING POSITIONED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BLOCK COOL CP INFLUENCE TO THE NORTH, RESULTING
IN TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EMBEDDED HEIGHT WAVES WILL CONTINUE FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE
MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS STALLED OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
FORECAST DETAILS:
LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY....TYPICAL PRE-COLD FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS BUILD THIS MORNING
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS THIS BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS
TO PRODUCE RAIN VIA TOP DOWN SATURATION. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
PROFILES REMAIN DRY WITH SSW FLOW GUSTING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW TWENTIES. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS RH VALUES APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY UNTIL DEW POINTS BEGIN TO INCREASE
AFTER 18Z. ENOUGH SATURATION ATTACHED TO THE COLD FRONT IN THE LOW
LEVELS WILL CREATE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION, FAVORING THE
EASTERN UPPER PENINSULA AND THE “TIP OF THE MITT.” THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA WILL ONLY HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO OBSERVE VIRGA TO
A TRACE AT MOST FOR A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS, ESPECIALLY AROUND LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK... 850MB TEMPERATURES, CURRENTLY IN THE MID-SINGLE DIGITS, WILL
EVENTUALLY REACH THE UPPER TEENS EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO CONTINUED
HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ADIABATIC HEATING
PROCESSES WILL PROVIDE THE NORTHWOODS WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-MAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WARMEST DAYS REMAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
PLACES NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL OBSERVE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S. THOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK
ANY RECORD HIGHS, IT MAY THREATEN A FEW OF THEM AT OUR TYPICALLY
WARMER PARTS OF THE CWA DUE TO DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS.
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND, WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK... OUR PARTNERS AT SPC PLACED PART OF THE CWA IN A
DAY 5 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT EVENT.
AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE AMERICAN ROCKIES WILL
EJECT ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY. MONDAY'S SETUP HAS FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WITH A LOW LEVEL JET,
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S, STRONG MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH
SEVERAL INDICES TO SUPPORT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE MONDAY
LOOKS THE MOST IDEAL AT THIS TIME, INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY
REORGANIZE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. IT IS STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO
MENTION OR ESTIMATE IMPACTS, BUT THIS SET UP WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS. UPSTREAM SUBSIDENCE BEYOND
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY RETURN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO QUIET WEATHER
BEYOND THE MIDWEEK WITH COOL NW FLOW RETURNING TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR LATE MAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
VFR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING.
LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER REMAINS AT CIU/PLN, BUT MORE LIKELY NOT.
CLOUDS DECREASE AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY-TONIGHT, GUSTY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LLWS AT
CIU THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR LHZ345-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LSZ321-322.
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...MJG
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