296
FXUS63 KAPX 151803
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
203 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
WARMEST READINGS ON MONDAY.
- SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND, WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES
ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.
- SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON (PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST (FWF) FOR THOSE DETAILS).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
MUCH MORE ZONAL FLAVOR TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CORE OF SUBTROPICAL SURFACE
HIGH SITUATED ABOUT WHERE IT SHOULD BE...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...WITH MATURING SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW BETWEEN IT AND SLOW
MOVING UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COLD FRONT DIRECTED RIGHT INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES OF COURSE ARE STARTING TO RESPOND
ACCORDINGLY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RETURNING TO MORE
NORMAL-LIKE LEVELS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. BAND OF ELEVATED
MOISTURE RESPONSIBLE FOR QUITE A BIT OF MORNING CLOUDS NOW EXITING
OFF TO OUR EAST...WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME CONTINUES INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES QUITE AGGRESSIVELY HEADING INTO
THE EARLY STAGES OF NEXT WEEK...MADE TO DO SO BY STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND UPPER JET CORE DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ONLY INTENSIFY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH TIME...NOT
ONLY BRINGING SOME SUMMERTIME WARMTH INTO THE NORTHWOODS...BUT ALSO
LIKELY BRINGING THE RETURN OF SOME ACTIVE WEATHER AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND FORCING INTENSIFY.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND ADDRESSING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS:
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT TIED TO WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SPEED MAX SLATED TO CROSS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ATTENDANT PLUME OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CORE
OF SUB 1K ELEVATED CAPE DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST THE THREAT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED NON-
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO
SIGNIFICANT...AND VERY LIKELY MUCH OF THE AREA SEES LITTLE RAIN AT
ALL. POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS LIMITED AT BEST ON SATURDAY,
WITH STILL WARM THERMAL PROFILES AND DEEPER AFTERNOON MIXING
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. PER THE USUAL, COASTAL LOCALES AND THOSE
NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERN LAKES WARM
FRONT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTH AS EARLIER TALKED ABOUT
AMPLIFICATION KICKS INTO OVERDRIVE. AGAIN, A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH BEST LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND SHORTWAVE FORCING
LOOK TO FOCUS WELL TO OUR WEST. NORTHERN MICHIGAN BECOMES FULLY
ENGULFED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF MATURING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY. THERMAL PROFILES AND INCREASED MECHANICAL MIXING WITHIN
INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EASILY SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL UP
INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE STRAITS (AGAIN, A BIT
COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN).
WOULDN'T BE ENTIRELY SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SPOTS MAKE A RUN AT 90 IN
THOSE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. LATER
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE QUITE ACTIVE AS DEEP
LAYER FORCING WORKS OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOKING TO GO UP AND OVER 1.50 INCHES).
JUXTAPOSITION OF BEST LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT, DEEPEST MOISTURE, AND
CORRIDOR OF DEEPEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY LOOK TO FOCUS TO OUR
WEST...SUGGESTING THAT IS WHERE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL RESIDE. OF COURSE, HOW THINGS EVOLVE HERE WILL BE HIGHLY
PREDICATED BY HOW CONVECTION UNFOLDS UPSTREAM. STILL, CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN POTENTIAL
WIND SHEAR AND EASTWARD PUSHING PLUME OF INSTABILITY. SPC CONTINUES
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN, FOCUSING SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF LOWER MICHIGAN. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO
MONITOR AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MAYBE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY (ALL DEPENDENT ON YET TO BE DETERMINED
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THAT AT LEAST PARTIALLY PREDICATED ON HOW
MONDAY NIGHT CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS CONGEAL). REST OF THE PERIOD
CURRENTLY LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TRENDING
BACK DOWN TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING AND MUCH OF TONIGHT, THEN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. VFR CIGS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR SATURDAY MORNING, BRIEFLY LOWER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION,
WITH A RETURN TO VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, WITH MORE BREEZY WEST WINDS ON
SATURDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA AND ALSO ISO -TSRA WILL BE ~06Z
TO 15Z TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TONIGHT, 220 DEGREES 35-40KTS GENERALLY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-099.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR LHZ345-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...JLD
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