710
FXUS63 KAPX 171114
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
714 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND STORMS TODAY; SOME COULD BE STRONG NEAR M-55/SAGINAW BAY
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
- PRIMARILY FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
NWLY 120+KT UPPER JET CRASHING THROUGH BROAD RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN CONTINENT...STRETCHING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND DRAGGING PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND MT/NORTHERN PLAINS. JET IS FEEDING
COOLER AIR ALOFT INTO THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN US/MIDWEST, WHICH HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE AXIS
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS OF 4Z, SLOWLY
SWEEPING A BIT OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION. 535DM UPPER LOW STILL
HANGING ON OVER NE MANITOBA...WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY POISED
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA ATTM; 0C ISOTHERM HANGING OUT OVER NORTHERN
MANITOBA UNDERNEATH THIS AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS
HELPING TO MOISTEN AND DESTABILIZE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, WITH ADVECTION FROM EML-RELATED AIR OVER THE CENTRAL US
(700MB 12C ISOTHERM HERE, AS WELL AS 850MB TEMPS AT OR ABOVE
24C)...INTO NW-SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE (SURFACE BOUNDARY) FROM
THE DAKOTAS DOWN INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. (THIS FEATURE LOOPS BACK UP
TO AN OCCLUDED LOW OVER LAKE MI/MANISTEE AS OF 0Z...HENCE OUR MILDLY
SPICY CONVECTION LAST EVENING.) SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER WI ATTM
HELPING TO CALM THINGS DOWN...BUT ALREADY SEEING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE NEXT SYSTEM ADVECTING INTO WI AS OF 4Z.
TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY, WITH INCREASING
DIFLUENCE AND JET COUPLING AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST TODAY...DRIVING A SUB-1000MB,FOUR-STANDARD-DEVIATIONS-BELOW-
THE-CLIMO-MEAN SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST...TRACKING ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AS IT OCCLUDES...DEEPENING FURTHER AS IT
EXITS STAGE RIGHT INTO CANADA THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE US UNDER
BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A COUPLE NIBLETS OF ENERGY PASS THROUGH
THE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THINK THE MORE AUTUMNAL VIBES WILL ATTEMPT
TO PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND AS WHAT REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
SINKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...MOST LIKELY PASSING OUT
OF THE REGION BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE MAY TRY TO
BUILD IN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH IT APPEARS WE WILL NOT
BE DONE WITH THE PERTURBATIONS...AS FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONTINENT TURNS MORE ZONAL OVERALL, DESPITE SOME ENERGY HANGING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CANADA SOMEWHERE. BOTTOM LINE...EXPECT
THINGS TO LARGELY REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE, AND PERHAPS ACTIVE AS
WELL, GOING INTO THE START OF ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER.
FORECAST DETAILS...
RAIN/STORMS TODAY...STILL A FAIR BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW, WHICH I SUSPECT WILL DEPEND TO SOME DEGREE ON
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK TODAY/TONIGHT...THOUGH ATTM THINGS SEEM TO
INDICATE AN OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW WITH A TRIPLE POINT LIFTING INTO
THE US-10/M-55 ISH VICINITY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, WITH A
GENERAL E-W ORIENTED OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING BACK TOWARD WI. THE
FURTHER NORTH THIS GETS, THE BETTER SHOT WE HAVE AT SEEING A)
STRONGER SUSTAINED E/SE WINDS ACROSS NE LOWER MI THIS EVENING, AND
B) BETTER SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER (SEE BELOW). SIGNALS POINT TOWARD
THIS PUNCH OF PV, TOO, BEING NEUTRAL OR NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
CROSSES MICHIGAN. WHILE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OUR
SOUTH WHERE IT SHOULD BE WARMER AND BETTER SHEAR SHOULD BE
LOCATED...SIMILAR TO TODAY, I CAN'T HELP BUT SUSPECT IT IS NOT TO BE
TRUSTED.
MID-LEVEL WARMING AHEAD OF THE PV MAX TODAY SHOULD PUT A HARD CAP ON
THE AREA, EVEN IF THERE IS ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE
EXPECTED STRATIFORM RAIN TO GENERATE ANY SURFACE-BASED CAPE (MOST
LIKELY SHOT WOULD BE NE LOWER WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN SHOULD BE SLOWER TO
MOVE IN...AND THIS IS WHERE SOME KIND OF LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO DEVELOP TODAY). (NOT SURE THAT YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL WILL LEND
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO THE LOW-LEVELS TO LOWER LCLS AND DESTABILIZE
THINGS A BIT EASIER OR NOT.) SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT SHOULD MOVE
IN WITH THE PV MAX TOWARD AND AFTER 0Z, WHICH COULD ALLOW A BETTER
SHOT AT GENERATING SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IF
A LOW-LEVEL WARM NOSE (700-850MB-ISH) CAN GET FAR ENOUGH
NORTH....AND THIS WOULD SUGGEST A HAIL THREAT IF IT
VERIFIES...THOUGH IT MAY WELL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. (SOME SIGNALS FOR
SLIGHT DRYING ALOFT COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AS WELL
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.) NOT SURE THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM UNLESS WE GET DEEP
ENOUGH INTO THE WARM SECTOR, MOST LIKELY NEAR SAGINAW BAY...AND WITH
THAT LOW-LEVEL WARM NOSE, WOULD EXPECT A VERY STOUT INVERSION THAT
COULD LIMIT DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER.......GIVEN THAT THIS SHOULD BE
A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH A STRONG JET ALOFT/JET COUPLING IN THE
VICINITY, THINK WE WILL HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT GRAVITY WAVES GETTING
INVOLVED, WHICH IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN, WOULD INDICATE A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT DESPITE OUR ANTICIPATED STRONG INVERSION. CERTAINLY HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR SHEAR ALOFT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE NOSE OF A 60+KT
500MB JET TO SNEAK IN AHEAD OF THE PV MAX AFTER DARK...AND ANYTHING
THAT DOES GET GOING, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING, COULD CERTAINLY GET
ORGANIZED.
THINK THE PRIMARY CONCERN, THOUGH, IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SYNOPTIC RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH THIS SETUP...AS MOST OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE SYNOPTIC
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD COME INTO PLAY, WITH PWATS ABOVE AN INCH
AND SIGNALS FOR SATURATION THROUGH THE COLUMN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
EARLY AS 15-18Z (THOUGH AGAIN...BETTER ABSOLUTE MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH). FRONTOGENETIC FACTORS COULD COME INTO PLAY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SHARP GRADIENT IN RAINFALL
BETWEEN THE "HAVES" AND "HAVE-NOTS" THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WEAKER
STABILITY SNEAKING IN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS, HAS
POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS AS WELL. THINK THE MOISTURE AND
FORCING COULD HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT, WITH A SECOND
TROUGH AXIS SWINGING/SLIDING THROUGH TOWARD MORNING. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...MORE OF
A CLASSIC, SYNOPTIC COMMA-HEAD TYPE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN TO THE
NORTH ACROSS THE EUP/TIP OF THE MITT/LAKE SUPERIOR, AND ANOTHER WITH
THE CONVECTIVE ACTION CLOSER TO CENTRAL MICHIGAN AND SAGINAW BAY/NE
LOWER; QPF GUIDANCE ATTM SEEMS TO BE LEANING TOWARD THIS IDEA...AND
IF IT WERE TO VERIFY, SOME PART OF THE AREA COULD END UP WITH LESS
RAIN THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE SHOULD HANG ON INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND THINK
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SCOUR IT OUT...LEAVING US WITH SOME FALL-
LIKE SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY, IF WE ARE ABLE TO WARM/MIX OFF
THE SURFACE AT ALL. IF WE REMAIN MUCH MORE STABLE/RAINY, WE COULD
END UP QUITE FALL-LIKE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN STRUGGLING INTO THE 60S LIKE SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 714 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
VFR TO START ASIDE FROM SOME LINGERING FG / BR CONCERNS AT PLN,
MBL, AND APN. SHRA BUILDS IN FROM THE SW, STARTING AT MBL
18-20Z, WITH OTHER TAF SITES FOLLOWING SUIT IN SEQUENCE FROM SW
TO NE. CIGS CRASH THROUGH MVFR, IFR, AND EVENTUALLY LIFR A
GENERAL 3-6 HOURS AFTER PRECIP ONSET. ANTICIPATING LIFR TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS CIGS GENERALLY HOVER 300-500FT
FOR MOST. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT, PERHAPS FLIPPING NORTH TO NORTHWEST RIGHT
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FEF
AVIATION...HAD
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