865
FXUS63 KAPX 171704
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
104 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN RETURN LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS, COOL AND BREEZY THURSDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO SPIN JUST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY THIS AFTERNOON -- LIKELY TO REMAIN
IN A SIMILAR POSITION INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE EJECTING
EAST. LONGWAVE TROUGHING EVIDENT ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
NOAM WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING AROUND CLOSED UPPER LOW
TO OUR NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
AIDING IN IMPRESSIVELY DEEP (FOR MID-JUNE) SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT
ON THE NOSE OF 130+ KT JET STREAK THAT EXTENDS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. AS
HAS BEEN NOTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS, THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM IS
NOTEWORTHY AS SUB-700 MB HEIGHTS AND MSLP REMAIN PROGGED TO BE
LOWER/DEEPER THAN ANY COMPARISON FROM THE '79-'09 CFSR CLIMATOLOGY
FOR A MULTI-WEEK PERIOD CENTERED ON JUNE 18TH.
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST ON THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH LINGERING WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION(S) LIKELY TO YIELD A FALL-
LIKE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEYOND THURSDAY, BROAD
TROUGHING LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH AT LEAST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
FORECAST DETAILS: INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MI
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CURRENT CONFIDENCE IS FOR RAIN TO SPREAD FARTHER
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER BY 22-00Z, AND INTO THE
EASTERN U.P. DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS. LATEST TRENDS FAVOR
STEADIEST RAIN FALLING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER BEFORE
EXITING EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
EXIST IN NORTHERN LOWER FOR 0.40 - 0.75" OF QPF. LOW PROBABILITIES
(<30%) FOR 1"+, WITH THOSE PROBS MAXIMIZED NEAR THE M-55 CORRIDOR
WHERE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS HIGHEST. WHILE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT THE EXPECTATION, ELEVATED
INSTABILITY UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG IS FAVORED NEAR AND SOUTH OF M-55
THIS EVENING. HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS CAN MANIFEST. WIND NOT SO MUCH OF A CONCERN GIVEN THERE
SHOULD BE A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE, BUT THAT SAID, STRONG JET
DYNAMICS/JET COUPLING NEARBY MAY AID IN INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR GRAVITY WAVES, WHICH WOULD INDICATE A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
THREAT DESPITE THAT INVERSION.
THURSDAY SHAPING UP TO A BE A FALL-LIKE DAY WITH SOME WRAP AROUND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS, LOTS OF CLOUDS, BREEZY WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS ALL LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS (ALTHOUGH SOME LOW SHOWER
CHANCES DO EXIST AT TIMES OVER THE WEEKEND). HIGH TEMPERATURES
FAVORED TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 714 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
VFR TO START ASIDE FROM SOME LINGERING FG / BR CONCERNS AT PLN,
MBL, AND APN. SHRA BUILDS IN FROM THE SW, STARTING AT MBL
18-20Z, WITH OTHER TAF SITES FOLLOWING SUIT IN SEQUENCE FROM SW
TO NE. CIGS CRASH THROUGH MVFR, IFR, AND EVENTUALLY LIFR A
GENERAL 3-6 HOURS AFTER PRECIP ONSET. ANTICIPATING LIFR TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS CIGS GENERALLY HOVER 300-500FT
FOR MOST. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT, PERHAPS FLIPPING NORTH TO NORTHWEST RIGHT
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...HAD
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