722
FXUS63 KAPX 191809
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
209 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
- SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
BRINGING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TOWARD 1.0" LATE TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER BY LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND FORCING SLIDE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF M-72 TONIGHT AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL SEE THE GREATEST
SHOWER COVERAGE. THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH A 925-850MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SAGINAW
BAY NORTHWEST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER. STEEPENING
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING, COMBINED WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE, WILL INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHERN LOWER. ALTHOUGH THE BEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND
KINEMATICS SIT WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA, SKINNY CAPES TO 600-800 J/KG
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WITH RELATIVELY LOW
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 7-8K, SMALL HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
OF THE STRONGER STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW OVERALL. ANY
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL END QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERN MICHIGAN GETS "SQUEEZED" BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY WITH AN
UPPER LOW NORTH OF SUPERIOR AND A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY.
DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR AREA LEADING TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THAT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THAT SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH MAY SKIRT FAR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOWER THREAT (M-55 AND POINTS
SOUTH), OTHERWISE DRY.
A FAST AND ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS TROUGHINESS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
BEST RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOWARD MIDWEEK BUT THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE SHORTWAVES CAN BE DIFFICULT IN THIS TYPE OF FLOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ISSUANCE PERIOD WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING INTO TONIGHT. AFTER ~06Z CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES START TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST (ESPECIALLY KMBL AND KTVC TO START WITH SOME MVFR
CONDTIONS ACROSS KMBL). NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS WILL
BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 10-15 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER TERMINALS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-
348.
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...NSC
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