853
FXUS63 KAPX 192154
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
554 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
- SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
BRINGING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TOWARD 1.0" LATE TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER BY LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND FORCING SLIDE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF M-72 TONIGHT AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL SEE THE GREATEST
SHOWER COVERAGE. THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH A 925-850MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SAGINAW
BAY NORTHWEST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER. STEEPENING
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING, COMBINED WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE, WILL INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHERN LOWER. ALTHOUGH THE BEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND
KINEMATICS SIT WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA, SKINNY CAPES TO 600-800 J/KG
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WITH RELATIVELY LOW
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 7-8K, SMALL HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
OF THE STRONGER STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW OVERALL. ANY
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL END QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERN MICHIGAN GETS "SQUEEZED" BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY WITH AN
UPPER LOW NORTH OF SUPERIOR AND A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY.
DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR AREA LEADING TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THAT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THAT SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH MAY SKIRT FAR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOWER THREAT (M-55 AND POINTS
SOUTH), OTHERWISE DRY.
A FAST AND ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS TROUGHINESS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
BEST RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOWARD MIDWEEK BUT THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE SHORTWAVES CAN BE DIFFICULT IN THIS TYPE OF FLOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 548 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
DIMINISHING HIGH BASED CUMULUS EARLY THIS EVENING GIVES WAY TO
SOME INCREASING MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A WEAK WAVES APPROACHES THE
REGION. TRENDS SUPPORT CIGS REMAINING ELEVATED ENOUGH ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS. ONE EXCEPTION
APPEARS TO BE AT KMBL WITH SOME SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MVFR PRODUCING CIGS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO FALL OUT OF THESE INCREASING CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT KMBL (AND PERHAPS KTVC). INCREASING
CUMULUS DECK ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY, SOME OF WHICH MAY
EVENTUALLY PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
...ALTHOUGH LATEST TRENDS SUPPORT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
REMAINING INLAND FROM OUR TAF LOCATIONS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-
348.
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...MSB
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