730
FXUS63 KAPX 201809
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
209 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
- DRY EARLY WEEK, RAIN CHANCES RETURN MIDWEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS FORCING DIMINISHES.
I WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FOCUSED
FROM SAGINAW BAY NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST LOWER, WITHIN A
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AND WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM INLAND
PENETRATING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF, HEAVY RAIN. SKIES CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S OVER
MANY INTERIOR AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
NORTHERN MICHIGAN GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY
WITH AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOW PRESSURE SLIDING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW TRACKING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. LAKE BREEZES
ARE ALSO LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON UNDER AN OVERALL LIGHT WIND
REGIME, WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES OVER
EASTERN UPPER. OVERALL, A NICE FATHERS DAY WEATHERWISE ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SUNDAY NIGHT, THE STORM SYSTEM SLIDING TO OUR
SOUTH MAY PUSH SOME SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER
(SOUTH OF M-55), DRY ELSEWHERE.
QUIET WEATHER HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH A QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY LATER TUESDAY EXTENDING
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY HELPS TO
ONCE AGAIN CARVE OUT THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR THOSE WANTING SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES, THERE ARE SIGNALS OF
A PUSH OF WARMER AIR INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR
THE END OF THE MONTH INTO EARLY JULY AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST, INDUCING RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PARTS OF THE CONUS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ISSUANCE PERIOD WITH
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AS THINGS ARE
CURRENTLY STARTING TO BUBBLE UP ON RADAR. ANY STORM THAT DOES
PERHAPS TRACK OVER A TERMINAL COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS, BUT THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING IN LOWER
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DUE TO FOG FORMING AT KMBL SATURDAY
MORNING...PUT IN A SLIGHT HINT OF SOME LOWERING VISIBILITIES
THIS TAF CYCLE BUT CURRENT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS WILL OCCUR.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SOME LOCAL LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...NSC
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