205
FXUS63 KAPX 202307
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
707 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
- DRY EARLY WEEK, RAIN CHANCES RETURN MIDWEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS FORCING DIMINISHES.
I WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FOCUSED
FROM SAGINAW BAY NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST LOWER, WITHIN A
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AND WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM INLAND
PENETRATING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF, HEAVY RAIN. SKIES CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S OVER
MANY INTERIOR AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
NORTHERN MICHIGAN GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY
WITH AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOW PRESSURE SLIDING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW TRACKING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. LAKE BREEZES
ARE ALSO LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON UNDER AN OVERALL LIGHT WIND
REGIME, WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES OVER
EASTERN UPPER. OVERALL, A NICE FATHERS DAY WEATHERWISE ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SUNDAY NIGHT, THE STORM SYSTEM SLIDING TO OUR
SOUTH MAY PUSH SOME SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER
(SOUTH OF M-55), DRY ELSEWHERE.
QUIET WEATHER HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH A QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY LATER TUESDAY EXTENDING
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY HELPS TO
ONCE AGAIN CARVE OUT THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR THOSE WANTING SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES, THERE ARE SIGNALS OF
A PUSH OF WARMER AIR INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR
THE END OF THE MONTH INTO EARLY JULY AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST, INDUCING RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PARTS OF THE CONUS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
ONLY CONCERN IS THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR TO EVEN IFR
PRODUCING STRATUS AND MIST/FOG AT KCIU AND KMBL EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING AT
KMBL. LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT ELSEWHERE UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG/MIST WILL ERODE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY, LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF
LOCATIONS UNDER SOME HIGHER BASED CUMULUS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH LOCAL AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...MSB
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