333
FXUS63 KAPX 210640
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
240 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A STORM OR TWO TODAY
- A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WITH QUIET WEATHER, THEN STORM
CHANCES RETURN MID WEEK
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
LARGE SCALE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO REACH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONUS THIS MORNING. LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE HAS OCCURRED WITH MOISTURE AMOUNTS THROUGH THE COLUMN,
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY. LITTLE TO NO LARGER SCALE
FORCING FEATURES EXIST BELOW 10KFT, SO LAKE BREEZES WILL FORM
TODAY AS MIXING HEIGHTS RISE TO AROUND 6KFT. DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING, COOLER AIR ABOVE WILL RESULT IN HIGHER LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST THIS AFTERNOON. LOW SHEAR AND SOME INSTABILITY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED PULSE TYPE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON (ESPECAILLY ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES). LOWER ELS
WILL KEEP STORMS CAPPED, RESULTING IN LOW TO ALMOST NO CHANCES
FOR SEVERE THREATS FROM THE HANDFUL OF STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
FORM TODAY. SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY EXISTS OVER EASTERN UPPER,
WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS TO PULSE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY THAT
ESTABLISHES THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL COULD BE LIKELY WITH
STRONGEST STORMS, HOWEVER VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE THREATS
REMAIN NORTH OF THE BRIDGE.
THE UPPER CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL CAN
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY ADVANCE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
NORTHERN MI LATER TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A SURFACE CYCLONE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS SOUTHERN
MI. NORTHERN MI WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE "DRY" SLOT, AND
RECEIVE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP FROM THESE FEATURES AS THEY
CONTINUE EASTWARD LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SETTLES IN UNDER LIGHT
NORTH WINDS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SUNNY SKIES, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE SEEN THESE DAYS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND WILL RETURN
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. A PACIFIC
AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, RESULTING IN LITTLE
TEMPERATURE CHANGE, AND LOWER CHANCES FOR WIDE SPREAD HEAVY
RAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE LATER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK, KEEPING THE WEATHER FAIRLY QUIET AND MILD.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING NEAR THE END OF THE MONTH, AS A -PNA
PATTERN ESTABLISHES OVER THE CONUS. THIS WOULD RETURN DEEP GULF
MOISTURE (STORM CHANCES) AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
INTO THE 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
ONLY CONCERN REMAINS THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR TO EVEN
IFR PRODUCING STRATUS AND MIST/FOG AT KCIU, KMBL, AND KPLN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE OF THIS
OCCURRING AT KMBL. LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG/MIST WILL ERODE QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE, LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF
LOCATIONS UNDER SOME HIGHER BASED CUMULUS AND SOME PASSING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOCAL
AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...MSB
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