586
FXUS63 KAPX 211818
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
218 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
- DRY EARLY WEEK, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN MIDWEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLIDE SOUTH/EAST TONIGHT,
WHILE A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SITS SQUARELY BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, WITH LARGELY DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE NORTHERN FRINGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION AREA FROM THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH MAY BRUSH FAR
SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA (M-55 SOUTHWARD) BUT ANY PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING AND DEEPEST
MOISTURE REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE, ANY LINGERING
DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN DRY OVERNIGHT - OUTSIDE OF THAT AFOREMENTIONED
SHOWER CHANCE SOUTH OF M-55. A LITTLE MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT
DUE TO MORE CLOUDS, BUT SOME INTERIOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER
INTO EASTERN UPPER WILL STILL DROP INTO THE 40S, WITH 50S
ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE.
FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT WINDS, AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES
AND OVERALL MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INCREASING
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES BY MIDWEEK, AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
WESTERN CANADA DROPS SOUTH/EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES, HELPING TO
ONCE AGAIN CARVE OUT THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR AREA (A RECURRING
THEME IN RECENT WEEKS). THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, WITH COOL AIR ALOFT AND SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES. QUIETER WEATHER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY
FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK.
MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS POISED TO RETURN FOR THE END OF JUNE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF JULY AS A TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
INDUCING AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PARTS OF THE
CONUS. THIS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT
LAKES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ISSUANCE PERIOD WITH
PERHAPS A FEW POP UP SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT, WHICH SHOULD HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IN
MOST AREAS TONIGHT/ MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH SOME LOCAL LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
(GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY KMBL AND KTVC).
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...NSC
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