414
FXUS63 KAPX 221701
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
101 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- WARMING TREND LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH
REMAINING ACTIVE AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE WEST TONIGHT, AND THUS A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A LITTLE
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER, THE SIGNAL IS NOT
VERY ROBUST AND THE GRADIENT MAY KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED
ENOUGH TO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS, IT WOULD BE FOR A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. TEMPS OVERALL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF MONDAY AS A
RESULT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO PERHAPS IN THE VICINITY OF
SAGINAW BAY NEAR THE LAKE BREEZE TUESDAY AFTERNOON? SIGNIFICANT
SUBSIDENCE LIKELY LIMITS THIS POTENTIAL, CERTAINLY NOT IMPACTFUL
EITHER WAY.
ROBUST SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT,
SHIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES.
INSTABILITY AXIS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EXPECTED WEST OF LAKE
MICHIGAN IN WISCONSIN, AS IT NORMALLY IS, AND THUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL FIRE OFF IN RESPONSE TO THE FEATURE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/FRONTAL FEATURES. CONSEQUENTLY, THIS ACTIVITY
MAY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY, IN ADDITION TO
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE FEATURE ALOFT AND
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. INSTABILITY LOOKS MINOR ON
WEDNESDAY, AND SO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCE AND SFC LOW MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH MINOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY, BUT ALSO INCREASING SHEAR
ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO IN NORTHERN LOWER MI. DELICATE
COMBINATION OVERNIGHT THAT CAN SOMETIMES SURPRISE, BUT HARD TO TELL
AT THIS TIME THE EXACT EXTENT OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.
THE LACK OF ROBUST INSTABILITY IS A LIMITING FACTOR.
THE VORT MAX AND TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY WORKS SOUTHEAST WITH TIME INTO
THURSDAY AND PASSING INTO NORTHERN MI THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY. BETTER
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND THUS PROBABLY THE
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN. CURRENT GUIDANCE PROGS A MODEST COMBINATION OF BULK
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WHICH, IF REALIZED, MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS (GIVEN THE SETUP REMAINS AND STORMS DO FIRE OFF).
HEIGHTS RISE THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY THE SECOND HALF, INTO NEXT
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
CONSEQUENTLY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THAT BEING SAID, THIS ENERGY AND ANY ASSOCIATED SFC
REFLECTIONS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME, RESULTING IN THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS WARMER AND MORE HUMID
PATTERN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
MAINLY VFR, BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT. BAND
OF SHOWERS HAS WEAKENED AS IT CROSSED EASTERN UPPER MI IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO REGENERATE
THIS MORNING, WITH A BETTER CHANCE IN NE LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. APN HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING -SHRA, BUT EVEN
THERE THAT CHANCE IS SMALL, AND RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
UNLIKELY. EXPECTING LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING,
WHICH WOULD GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG LATE. FOR NOW HAVE
MVFR/IFR FOG RETURNING TO MBL VERY LATE TONIGHT (THE ONE SITE
THAT HAD FOG THE PREVIOUS NIGHT).
NNW TO N WINDS TODAY, BECOMING LIGHTER TONIGHT.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...JZ
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