560
FXUS63 KAPX 240230
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1030 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- WARMING TREND LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK,
ALTHOUGH REMAINING ACTIVE AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TRACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM WEST TO EAST, THOUGH IT MAY TAKE SOME
TIME FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO FULLY WORK INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
GIVEN THE DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE. AS A RESULT, WEDNESDAY
MORNING LOOKS TO BE MORE SCATTERED AND INTERMITTENT
PRECIPITATION INITIALLY, WITH COVERAGE GRADUALLY INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EDGES CLOSER.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISPLACED WEST OF
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY, AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY
FURTHER LIMIT DESTABILIZATION LOCALLY. EVEN SO, INCREASING
MOISTURE AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THUNDER CHANCES CONTINUING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE MAIN WAVE APPROACHES.
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED ENERGY GRADUALLY SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CURRENTLY APPEARS TO OFFER THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER. SHOULD ENOUGH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP, A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONGER
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING GIVEN A SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR (GIVEN THE SETUP
REMAINS AND THE STORM DO FIRE OFF).
A TRANSITION TOWARDS WARMER WEATHER ARRIVES HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STEADILY CLIMB, WITH HIGHS
RETURNING WELL IT THE 80S IN MANY LOCATIONS BY LATE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE,
MAKING IT FEEL INCREASINGLY SUMMER- LIKE ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER, THE WARMER WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR COMPLETELY
QUIET WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING AT TIMES.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING OF ANY INDIVIDUAL
SYSTEM, BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THE BROADER PATTERN OF
WARMTH RETURNING, INCREASING HUMIDITY, AND PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AS WE CLOSE OUT JUNE AND HEAD
INTO JULY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
ONLY CONCERN THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING IS FOR THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/MIST...ESPECIALLY AT KCIU.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER JUST SOME PASSING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. TOP/DOWN SATURATION BEGINS QUICKLY DURING
THE MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS DEEPENING MOISTURE...INITIALLY TARGETING KTVC
AND KMBL. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST
THESE SHOWERS WILL REACH THROUGH THE DAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
CIGS WILL FURTHER LOWER FOR THE AFTERNOON, LIKELY BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS TO WESTERN TAF LOCATIONS...WITH THESE LOWER CLOUDS
LIKELY EXPANDING FURTHER EAST INTO THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NSC
AVIATION...MSB
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