019
FXUS63 KAPX 241821
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
221 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR SEVERE THREATS WITH STORMS
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AS THE PATTERN CHANGES THIS
WEEKEND. CHANCES INCREASE FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EARLY
NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
SPIN/VORTICITY OVER NORTHERN MN THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER CLOSED LOW
IS IN THE PROCESS OF OPENING UP AND PHASING WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
OVER EASTERN CAN COAST. NEAR THE SURFACE, CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF A WEAKER SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. THE PACIFIC SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MN/WESTERN U.P. HAS SOME
MOISTURE WRAPPED UP WITHIN IT (AROUND 1 INCH PWATS DISPLAYED ON
ALPW), WITH DEEPER GULF MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOST OF
NORTHERN MI WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH FOR THIS DEEPER MOISTURE TO REACH
UP HERE AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.. HOWEVER THE PACIFIC
MOISTURE CONTAINED WITHIN THE LARGER SYSTEM WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILTY PRESENT AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEAR PROFILES BELOW 3KM EXISTS AS THE LOW
LEVEL CYCLONE HELPS TO GENERATE SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15KTS RIGHT
ABOVE THE SHALLOW INVERSION PRESENT. STORM MOTION WILL BE WESTERLY,
WITH ENOUGH MOVEMENT TO CURB FLOODING CONCERNS TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
HEAVY RAIN THAT IS ABLE TO TRAIN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG CREEKS. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE SEEN OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL LAND RIGHT OVER NORTHERN MI THURSDAY, RESULTING
IN THE PEAK OF INSTABILITY WHICH REMAINS "SKINNY" CAPE THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS SLACKEN IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS THE
LOWER LEVEL CYCLONE LANDS RIGHT OVER THE CWA. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
VARIABLE DUE TO CONVECTION, POTENTIAL FOR WEAK LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES, AND OTHER COLD POOL BOUNDARIES ALL INTERACTING WITH
LIGHTER SYNOPTIC WINDS. THE MAIN THREATS FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS
THURSDAY WILL BE HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN 10 KFT WITH MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN DURING
PEAK INSTABILITY. LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS. DUE TO THE
POTENTIALLY CHAOTIC NATURE OF BOUNDARIES AND LOCALLY DRIVEN WINDS, A
BRIEF SPIN UP OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.
A BREAK IN RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
LARGER SCALE PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT.. A -PNA WILL BEGIN TO
ESTABLISH AS A STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INLAND NEAR THE PAC NW.
THIS WILL DEEPEN THE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US, AND LEAD TO
AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN US. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH
COULD BE AS CLOSE AS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, REACHING 596 DAM. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PATTERN CHANGE, HOWEVER GLOBAL GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
FEATURE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A DEEP GULF MOISTURE SURGE NORTHWARD
UNDER THIS RIDGING, WHICH RESULTS IN POTENTIAL STORM CHANCES AND
COULD COMPLICATE EXACT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. STAY TUNED INTO THE
FORECAST AS WE APPROACH THESE WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
AS -RA AND -TSRA MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. VSBY'S AND
CIG'S REMAIN MOSTLY VFR AND MVFR THIS EVENING WITH TEMPORARY FLIGHT
CATEGORY REDUCTIONS DUE TO LOCALIZED -TSRA IMPACTS. CEILINGS
CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH IFR AND
POTENTIAL LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. CONDTIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY, EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO VFR AT THE END
OR SHORTLY BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...SJC
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