125
FXUS63 KAPX 252338
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
738 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
- QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MUCH WARMER, MORE HUMID, AND POTENTIALLY ACTIVE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, SET TO DEPART OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, ~1012MB LOW PRESSURE SITS ACROSS CENTRAL MI
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORNING CONVECTION LARGELY OFF TO THE
EAST. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT UNDERWAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, PROGGED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE AMPLIFIED/
IMPRESSIVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NATION'S MIDSECTION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, POTENTIAL GROWS NEXT WEEK FOR THE RETURN OF
OCCASIONALLY ACTIVE WEATHER.
FORECAST DETAILS: PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM REVOLVES AROUND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS 500-750
J/KG MLCAPE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE M-72 CORRIDOR AND UP TO ~250 J/KG
AS FAR NORTH AS THE TIP OF THE MITT. INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO PERSIST
OR INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MORE SUN PREVAILS
ACROSS SECTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER. UP TO 1,000-1,250 J/KG
ANTICIPATED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA
NEAR SAGINAW BAY BY MID-AFTERNOON. PROGGED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30
KTS MAXIMIZED NEAR AND SOUTH OF M-32 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. LATEST TRENDS STILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SECTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER (ALREADY
UNDERWAY NEAR AND WEST OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY), SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN A GOOD BET IN ANY STORMS, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN SLOW CELL MOVEMENT. SHOWER/STORM THREAT EXPECTED TO WANE
TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY
SUNDAY. HEAT/HUMIDITY BUILD MONDAY ONWARD WITH GROWING POTENTIAL (60-
80+%) FOR 90+ DEGREE HIGH TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY ONWARD. SOME CONCERN AROUND POTENTIAL CONVECTION
UPSTREAM AND LOCALLY THAT MAY LIMIT THE HIGHER END TEMP
POTENTIAL, BUT CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT AT THIS
POINT TO DEVIATE FROM FAVORED BLENDED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR APN WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AFTER THAT. BUT FOG/STRATUS WILL RETURN/EXPAND
TONIGHT, WITH IMPACTS AT ALL SITES. HAVE LIFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING AT PLN/MBL, IFR ELSEWHERE. VFR ALL
SITES BY LATE FRI MORNING. LIGHT WINDS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...JZ
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