954
FXUS63 KAPX 261038
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
638 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ROGUE SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY/SATURDAY?
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS STARTING LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK
- POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT/HUMIDITY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE PACNW COAST...WITH SPLIT FLOW ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US
THOUGH UPPER RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST,
WITH A 100KT UPPER JET STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC ATTM. OVERALL TROUGHING STILL HANGING ON ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA, WITH THE TROUGH AXIS THAT DUMPED RAIN ON
PARTS OF THE AREA YESTERDAY FINALLY EXITING STAGE RIGHT INTO NEW
ENGLAND. DEEPEST MOISTURE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL US ATTM, WHERE
PWATS REACH OR EXCEED 2IN ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY, EVEN POKING INTO
THE OH VALLEY A BIT ALONG A MORE-OR-LESS EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE
STRETCHING FROM NM TO LAKE ERIE. AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL RETURN
FLOW INTO THIS EAST-WEST BOUNDARY CERTAINLY HELPING WITH CONVECTION
ONGOING OUT THERE AS OF 4Z...AND ALSO HELPING TRANSPORT A BIT OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS WELL, THOUGH PERTURBATION TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LIKELY HELPING WITH THAT AS WELL. COLDEST AIR ATTM
IS BENEATH THE TROUGH AXIS IN OUR VICINITY, WITH 850MB TEMPS AS COOL
AS 8C; 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 20C ACROSS THE WESTERN US. HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY TRYING TO SETTLE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ATTM, BUT ONLY FOR A
TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
TODAY...THOUGH WHATEVER IS LEFT OF ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL TRY TO MAKE IT IN HERE THIS AFTERNOON (SOME SORT OF
PERTURBATION FROM ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY MAY
ALSO TRY TO SNEAK BY TO OUR SOUTH). THIS SHOULD LEAVE US WITH SLIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT...AS TROUGH AXIS DIGS OUT WEST AND
STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD INTENSIFY
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LEAD TO SOME ACTIVITY OUT
THERE...THOUGH WE SHOULD STILL BE LARGELY UNDER THE CONTROL OF HIGH
PRESSURE ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE. RIDGE WILL BUILD
FURTHER EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW (AND HUMIDITY) EXPECTED TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE CENTER SLOWLY MEANDERS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO
CANADA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE LONGER-
WAVE TROUGH AXIS; THIS SHOULD DRAG THE WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA AND
LIKELY LEAVE US UNDER OR NEAR THE PERIMETER OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
GREATER THAN 590DM 500MB UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED OVER THE OH VALLEY BY
MIDWEEK, AND STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR HOW STRONG THIS WILL BE DESPITE
ENERGY TRYING TO TRACK INTO HUDSON BAY (AND THUS, HOW MUCH WE WILL
BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS). ATTM, NOT A TON OF
CHANGE TO THE PATTERN GOING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH SIGNALS
FOR STRONG RIDGING TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
FORECAST DETAILS...
ROGUE SHOWER TODAY AND SATURDAY? AFTER MORNING FOG/DRIZZLE BURNS OFF
AND DEPARTS...EXPECT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH,
WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN, PERHAPS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE US-131
CORRIDOR? IN ANY CASE, WHATEVER DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE SHALLOW
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS, AND THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE
BULK OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THINK A SIMILAR SITUATION IS
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS WELL WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL TO THE
AIRMASS...THOUGH WARMING ALOFT COULD BE A LITTLE TOO MUCH FOR
DIURNAL HEATING TO DO MUCH.
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY? CONTINUING OFF/ON INTO NEXT
WEEK... UPSTREAM SETUP SATURDAY NIGHT COULD SUPPORT UPSTREAM
CONVECTION DRIFTING INTO OUR AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING; INCREASING
THETA-E ADVECTION OVER WI ALONG WARM FRONT COULD WELL DEVELOP
CONVECTION ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LAKE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THAT MAY WANT TO DRIFT ACROSS THE LAKE...OR PERHAPS CONTINUE (AS
ELEVATED CONVECTION) RIGHT ON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
MONDAY MORNING. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT (ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER ADVECTION FROM THE DESERT SW) LOOK TO KNOCK ON OUR
DOORSTEP BY THIS TIME AND THINK THIS FURTHER SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OVER THE REGION (PARTICULARLY TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST). WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WARM ADVECTION JUNK INTO MONDAY AS WELL,
THOUGH ONCE WE START TO GET UNDER THE WARM AIR ALOFT (700MB TEMPS
12C OR BETTER), WE STAND A CHANCE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY CAPPED,
MAKING IT MORE DIFFICULT TO POP DIURNAL CONVECTION WITHOUT STRONG
FORCING. SUSPECT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES OFF AND ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF AFTERNOON AND/OR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION, AS
THE EJECTING UPPER LOW TRIES TO TRACK OVER THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH
ONTARIO. FORTUNATELY? UNFORTUNATELY? FOR US, THIS IDEA WOULD KEEP
THE CORE OF THE ANTICIPATED 590+DM HEAT DOME CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH
AND MAY KEEP US FROM GETTING QUITE AS HOT...THOUGH THE HUMIDITY WILL
INDEED BE AN ISSUE.
UNCOMFORTABLE TO DOWNRIGHT DANGEROUS HEAT/HUMIDITY NEXT WEEK... AS
DISCUSSED ABOVE, THE POTENTIAL CONVECTION ALONG THE PERIMETER OF THE
HEAT DOME COULD VERY WELL KEEP OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM MAXING
OUT UP HERE IN THE NORTHWOODS. AIR MASS CERTAINLY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE VERY WARM, WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 20C (PERHAPS WELL
ABOVE 20C) SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 90S, AND
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW DOWNSLOPING IN OUR USUAL HOT SPOTS COULD PUSH
SOME AREAS CLOSER TO 100F OR BETTER -- IN THIS WORST CASE SCENARIO,
APPARENT TEMPERATURES COULD EXCEED 100-105F FOR MULTIPLE DAYS IN A
ROW INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF HOW HOT IT GETS DURING
THE DAY, THOUGH, THE SOUPY GULF AIR MASS WILL LIKELY KEEP DEWPOINTS,
AND THEREFORE, LOW TEMPERATURES, FROM GETTING TOO FAR BELOW 70F FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK... AND MULTIPLE DAYS/NIGHTS OF THIS IN A ROW WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO COOL OFF. GREAT LAKES WATER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL LARGELY AT OR BELOW 60F, WHICH IS STILL IN
THE HYPOTHERMIA THREAT RANGE...WHICH COULD ALSO COMPLICATE TRYING TO
COOL OFF, AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER FLOW NEXT WEEK COULD ALSO LEAD TO
SOME SWIM RISKS AT TIMES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
STARTING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MYRIAD FLIGHT CATEGORIES...
LIFR, IFR, AND MVFR... ALL OF WHICH WILL IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY
THIS MORNING. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
LAKE BREEZE PROCESSES ACTIVE AT APN ALONG WITH LAKE MICHIGAN TAF
SITES. TRENDING CALM AGAIN TONIGHT... WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE BR
AND / OR FG DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FEF
AVIATION...HAD
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