516
FXUS63 KAPX 101036
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
636 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG LINGER EARLY THIS MORNING.
- WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDICES
RISE INTO THE 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO EVACUATE TO THE SOUTH, LEAVING A
GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE TONIGHT. RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS, COMBINED WITH EFFICIENT NIGHTTIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING, WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF EARLY MORNING
DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PLENTY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS TODAY WITH
SOME VERTICAL GROWTH. SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE 700MB LEVEL SHOULD
AGGRESSIVELY CAP MOST OF THESE CUMULUS CLOUDS; HOWEVER, A FEW SELECT
AREAS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR TWO AS THE CAP ERODES SOMEWHAT DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LAKE BREEZE MAY ALSO
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS. CONSEQUENTLY, A 15% POP HAS BEEN INCLUDED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
EITHER WAY, ANY SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTFUL.
EXPECT A RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY, FEATURING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WITH NOTICEABLY LESS HUMIDITY COMPARED TO
THURSDAY.
EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH ANOMALOUS HEIGHTS
BULGING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND. CONSEQUENTLY, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT CLIP THE E UP
LATER ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES STEADILY WARM FROM THE LOW TO MID-80S
ON SATURDAY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY.
THE MOST IMPRESSIVE HIGH PRESSURE BULGE FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL
BE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ~596 DECAMETER HEIGHT CONTOUR MOVES OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ACCORDINGLY, PEAKING IN THE UPPER
80S AND 90S ACROSS THE REGION (HOTTEST SPOTS ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
DUE TO DOWNSLOPING). WITH DEWPOINTS POOLING IN THE 60S, HEAT INDICES
WILL PUSH INTO THE 90S FOR MOST AREAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
MINIMAL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME GIVEN THE FORMIDABLE SUBSIDENCE UNDER
THE UPPER HIGH.
CLIMATE NOTE: RECORD HIGHS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND INTO NEXT
WEEK AT MOST OF OUR CLIMATE SITES ARE WELL INTO THE 100S—INCLUDING
AN IMPRESSIVE 107°F AT HOUGHTON LAKE (KHTL) ON JULY 13, 1936. WE CAN
THANK THE REFORESTATION OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SINCE THE LOGGING ERA
FOR HELPING MODERATE OUR MODERN TEMPERATURE EXTREMES.
BY MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK, THE CENTER OF THE ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE BACK TOWARD THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
SHIFT WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO RIDE THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE VIA NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ALL IN
ALL, EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK, ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THOUGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING ANY SORT OF COVERAGE/TIMING REMAINS
LOW AT THIS RANGE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
ANY FOG/MIST AND STRATUS WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING, LEAVING
BEHIND A FEW ELEVATED CUMULUS AND SOME THIN PASSING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING, WITH PERHAPS SOME MORE EARLY
MORNING FOG AND MIST. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ321.
DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...MSB
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