722
FXUS63 KAPX 101742
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
142 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-LARGELY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF LAKE BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS / THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.
-TRENDING WARMER WITH TIME, POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-PATTERN BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO
TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
AMPLIFYING THERMAL RIDGING REGIME JUST TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO
SUPPLY THE REGION WITH NW FLOW ALOFT, REINFORCED BY A PERSISTENT
TROUGHING REGIME OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. RESULT WILL BE PERIODIC
INTRUSIONS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY, COUPLED WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRACING THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE MAJORITY OF MOISTURE THAT GENERATED
YESTERDAY'S CONVECTION HAS BEEN FORCED SOUTHWARD BY THE ADVANCEMENT
OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY (NOW ACTING AS A COLD FRONT) CURRENTLY
STALLING OUT FROM ROUGHLY KANSAS CITY, MO TO TOLEDO, OH... AND
POINTS EAST THROUGH ALBANY, NY. RESULT IS A LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION, ALBEIT, STILL A LITTLE MOIST CONSIDERING 16Z DEWPOINTS
ARE STILL LARGELY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. 16Z ANALYSIS ALSO
SHOWS A CRESCENT SHAPED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
THE WESTERN CORN BELT REGION THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, CURVING
NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY. RESULT WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE
OVERHEAD TODAY, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ESCHEW THE DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS.
DETAILS:
THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES... HOW MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT CAN BE
REALIZED WITH THE CU FIELD TODAY, AND WILL IT BE ENOUGH TO FORCE A
SHOWER? I WOULD SAY FOR 98% OF THE NWS GAYLORD FOOTPRINT, THE ANSWER
TO THAT IS YES. BUT FOR THE OTHER 2%? THE ANSWER IS MOST LIKELY NO,
ON A LOCALIZED SCALE.
CURRENT 500MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE ABSOLUTELY DECIMATING LAPSE
RATES ALOFT, ESSENTIALLY CAPPING THEM AT 5C/KM... AND EVEN SUPPLYING
A WARM NOSE ALOFT. THAT MUCH SUPPRESSION SHOULD NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO
GENERATING ANYTHING MUCH MORE THAT SOME TOWERING CU FOR THE MOST
PART. BUT FOR SOME LUCKY FOLKS IN NORTHEAST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER,
LINGERING MARINE INFLUENCES ARE PROGGED TO LAY DOWN A CORRIDOR OF
LOW-TO-MID 60S DEWPOINTS, WHICH WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO BYPASS THAT
WARM NOSE IN THE INSTABILITY PROFILE. NORTH FLOW WITH A WARM AIRMASS
OVER LAND WILL ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF INLAND ADVANCING LAKE
BREEZES, WHICH SHOULD ACT AS THE SOURCE OF LIFT THAT WILL GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS. NOT REALLY LOOKING LIKE A SEVERE SETUP, BUT
WOULDN'T BE OVERLY SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND WIND IN
THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS CONSIDERING MODEST STREAMWISE VORTICITY, BUT
IT WOULD HAVE TO BE REALIZED AS THESE STORMS COLLAPSE AND DROP THEIR
CORES TO THE SURFACE.
FOR THE WEEKEND, EVEN DRIER AIR BUILDS FOR SATURDAY WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH OVERHEAD. DEWPOINTS LOWER INTO THE LOWER 50S AND SHOULD LEAD TO
LESS INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION. SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS OVERHEAD. BY SUNDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE
SHIFTED JUST TO OUR EAST, WHICH WILL LEAD TO WARM / MOIST ADVECTING
RETURN FLOW OVERHEAD. WITH THIS REINFORCEMENT OF MOISTURE, COULD
EASILY SEE ANOTHER COUPLE LAKE-BREEZE INDUCED SHOWERS OR STORMS
ACROSS NE LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER AMID A WEAK SW FLOW REGIME.
LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK, A BIT MORE OF AN ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE JET FLOW
LOCKS INTO PLACE ESSENTIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE US / CANADA
BORDER AMID THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS REALLY FLEXING, AND
DEEPER TROUGHING SETTLING INTO ATLANTIC CANADA AND INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THIS RESULT PUTS NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN INTO A PRECARIOUS PLACE CONSIDERING THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN EVOLUTION SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE, LONG TRACKING
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES (MCSS) WITH EACH WAVE PASSAGE,
INSTABILITY AND TIMING PERMITTING OF COURSE. CERTAINLY A BIT EARLY
TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF EVERYTHING. BUT ONE THING
IS CERTAIN WITH THIS PATTERN- IT WILL, AT THE VERY MINIMUM, GENERATE
A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY TO THE REGION (WARM, MUGGY
NIGHTS), AND POTENTIALLY AIR TEMPERATURES SPIKING AS WELL. AS SUCH,
WILL NEED TO WATCH RATHER CLOSELY TO SEE IF WE SURGE BACK INTO HEAT
RELATED HEADLINES, WHICH CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BEST SHOT
FOR THAT IS TUESDAY, BARRING CURRENT TEMPERATURES PROGS BEING
ANNIHILATED BY A ROGUE MCS IN THE MORNING / AFTERNOON THAT STUNTS
TEMPERATURES.
TEMP FORECAST:
TODAY: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S (WARMEST MACKINAC COUNTY
AND M-55 CORRIDOR). TONIGHT: LOWS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S, COASTS 60-
65. SATURDAY: HIGHS LOW-TO-UPPER 80S, OVERNIGHT LOWS 55-60 INLAND,
62-68 ON THE COASTS. SUNDAY: HIGHS 85 TO 90, OVERNIGHT LOWS 60 TO 70
(WARMEST COASTS). MONDAY: 85 TO 95, OVERNIGHT LOWS 65 TO 75+.
TUESDAY: HIGHS 88 TO 95+ (WARMEST NE LOWER), OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70. REST OF NEXT WEEK: MUCH MORE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW-TO-MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
EXPECT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 4KFT. THINK THERE IS LOW POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA ESP AT CIU; EVEN LOWER POTENTIAL BUT STILL NON-ZERO FOR
TVC, MBL, PLN WITH LAKE BREEZE. AFTER DARK, EXPECT LIGHT/VRB WINDS
TO REVERT TO LIGHT OFFSHORE/LAND BREEZES; THINK FOG WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN AT MOST, IF NOT ALL SITES, AND HAVE SOME IFR VISBYS TEMPO-ED
IN AROUND/AFTER 8Z-12Z (COULD START AS EARLY AS 2-5Z, THOUGH), ESP
FOR OUR NORTHERN SITES (CIU/PLN/APN). NON-ZERO SHOT AT SHRA IN THE
MORNING AT CIU/APN BUT THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING S/SW TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...FEF
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