717
FXUS63 KAPX 110716
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
316 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WITH QUIET AND WARM WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BUILD
THIS TUESDAY.
-SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
THE 500MB RIDGING PATTERN POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN PROGRESSIVELY WARMING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AT THE SAME TIME, THE SURFACE PATTERN DEPICTS A STAGNANT FRONT
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL CONUS, KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND
OVER THE CWA WITH HIGHS CONTINUING TO CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
WARMEST DAYS WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
PROGRESSES DOWNSTREAM AND POSITIONS ITS AXIS OVER THE
CANADIAN/AMERICAN HIGH PLAINS. H8 TEMPERATURES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 20S THIS TUESDAY,
LIKELY LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S AND POTENTIALLY
BREAKING 100 FOR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS RELATIVELY BENIGN AS THE INTENSE
THERMAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
AND STARTS TO HAVE A MORE CANADIAN AIR INFLUENCE INTO THE
NORTHWOODS. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED WEST OF THE CWA. ONLY CHANCE OF SYNOPTIC-DRIVEN
RAINFALL RETURNS AT THE END/JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING LEE OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
FORECAST DETAILS:
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED THERMAL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
SUPPORTS TYPICAL NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THIS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH LOW RH’S. LOW DEW POINTS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE
OVERNIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. WARMEST DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH HIGHS SURGING INTO THE
90S THIS TUESDAY WILL CAUSE THE WARMEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO REMAIN
THE WARMEST LIKELY RESULTING IN A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOW
100’S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS FRIDAY AND PROCEEDS TO DIG ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEKEND. BESIDES THE ONE OR TWO
ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS THIS WEEK DUE TO LAKE BREEZE
PROCESSES, NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE THE NEXT PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD
OBSERVED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO GIVE
DETAILS ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS, BUT SUPPORTED STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW
ALOFT AND THE POTENTIAL TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM COULD SUPPORT
STRONGER AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO MID/LATE
JULY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1106 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ASIDE FROM HIGH CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS
MID-MICHIGAN, CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND POTENTIAL PATCHY FG/BR FORMATION LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE BREEZE FORMATION
PUSHING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...DJC
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