624
FXUS63 KAPX 121718
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
118 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-ISOLATED SHOWERS TRACK ACROSS THE U.P THIS EVENING.
-HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING THROUGH TUESDAY.
-RAIN CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
MIDLEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGING REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN
HIGH PLAINS TODAY CONTINUING THE PROCESS OF WARM SOUTHWESTERN AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTY. WHILE MOST AREAS CAN
EXPECT TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS AN EMBEDDED LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH PROVIDES ENOUGH ENERGY TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION.
SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH TUESDAY. ONLY CHANCE
OF WIDESPREAD ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS REMAINS AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM TROUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY
PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD. LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES STRUGGLE WITH A
SOLUTION REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS AXIS SHIFTS, BUT
PROBABILITIES FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN
REMAIN IDEAL NEXT WEEKEND.
FORECAST DETAILS:
TODAY: CLOUD COVER WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR
REGION. MOST AREAS WILL OBSERVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S TODAY. HOWEVER, INCREASING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE CENTRAL U.P. WILL SUPPORT STORMS MOVING INTO
THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVEN WITH DISCRETE CELLS MOVING INTO A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT, ENOUGH MOMENTUM WILL ALLOW A FEW LOCALIZED
AREAS OF EASTERN UPPER AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE MICHIGAN SHORELINES TO
OBSERVE LIGHT RAINFALL.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO THE WELL-ADVERTISED, NEAR RECORD-BREAKING
HEAT. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THERMAL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
ITS AXIS EASTWARD THIS WEEK AND SUPPORT WARM, DRY AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION. MONDAY AND TUESDAY REMAIN THE HOTTEST DAYS WITH H8
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 20S. SURFACE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS MONDAY FOLLOWED BY UPPER 90S THIS
TUESDAY, WITH EVEN A FEW AREAS OBSERVING AFTERNOON TEMPS BREAKING
100 DEGREES NEAR SAGINAW BAY. TROUGHING FROM THE NORTH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD AND PROVIDES A NORTHERLY AIR MASS INFLUENCE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OUTLOOK: LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES DEPICT MIDLEVEL
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST OVER ONTARIO THIS WEEKEND. TROUGHING BEGINS TO INFLUENCE
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SOMEWHAT ACTIVE
WEATHER DRIVEN BY EMBEDDED WAVES. NO WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, BUT MANY ARE LIKELY TO OBSERVE SOME
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AFTER THIS WEEK'S DRY PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
WILL SPREAD MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN INTO THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT, THERE IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS SLIDING SOUTH
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. TOO LOW OF A POSSIBILITY TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS BUT SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF. OTHERWISE, HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
GENERALLY SOUTHWEST/WEST ON MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20
KTS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...JK
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