833
FXUS63 KAPX 131745
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
145 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-NEAR RECORD BREAKING HEAT BUILDS TODAY AND TUESDAY.
-HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WITH QUIET AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
-ROUNDS OF SHOWERS RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF STORMS THIS SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
THE 500 MB RIDGING PATTERN REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING AND IS EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY WEATHER AS H8 TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID-20S (CELSIUS)
ADVECT INTO THE NORTHWOODS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S, WITH A FEW AREAS NEAR
SAGINAW BAY POTENTIALLY REACHING THE LOW 100S.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE THIS RIDGING PATTERN CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE AFTER TUESDAY DUE TO AN INCREASING CANADIAN AIRMASS
INFLUENCE. A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
HUDSON BAY, WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER. WAVES OF ENERGY
WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, RESULTING IN ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
INCREASING STORM POTENTIAL BY THIS SUNDAY.
FORECAST DETAILS:
TODAY AND TUESDAY...A DRY AND HOT SOUTHWESTERN AIRMASS INFLUENCING
THE NORTHWOODS TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID-90S TODAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES EVEN HIGHER, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR SAGINAW BAY
POTENTIALLY BREAKING 100 DEGREES DUE TO LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPE WARMING.
THE ONE SILVER LINING TO THIS HEAT WAVE, COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
EVENTS, IS THAT DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE 50S EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE
ACTUAL AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THANKS TO THE MIDLEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN
HUDSON BAY. THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL RETREAT WESTWARD AND BRING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OUTLOOK...CLOSED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND AND RETURN PRECIPITATION TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. FORCING THROUGH EMBEDDED WAVES WILL DELIVER
DISHEVELED ROUNDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES STARTING THIS FRIDAY.
PROBABILITIES OF QPF REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME MAINLY DUE TO WEAK
FORCING COMBINED WITH THESE SYSTEMS BEGINNING MOISTURE-STARVED, BUT
SOME AREAS OF THE MIDWEST CAN EXPECT MORE LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE
DRIVEN RAIN AS A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS SUNDAY. TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE IMPACTS OR RAINFALL POTENTIAL, BUT WE WILL MONITOR THIS
FEATURE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE JULY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
A BIT OF SMOKE DRIFTING THRU ALOFT FROM NW-SE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD EXIT BY EVENING; SOME AFTERNOON CU POPPING UP WHERE IT IS NOT
SMOKY, WITH BASES ~2500-3500FT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT PREVAILING
VFR. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT LLWS (NW AROUND 30-
35KTS) TO INCREASE TONIGHT, ESP ACROSS CIU/PLN/APN AFTER 6-
8Z...COULD GET INTO TVC/MBL AS WELL BUT MAY NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG.
SOME FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 6-12Z, ESP MBL BUT COULD BE ELSEWHERE IF
WINDS LIGHT ENOUGH. WINDS GENERALLY SW AROUND 5KTS TONIGHT
INCREASING TO 5-15KTS AFTER 12Z TUES AND TURNING MORE W. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP THRU THIS TAF PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ016>018-020>036-
041-042-086>088-095>099.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...FEF
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