105
FXUS63 KAPX 132358
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
758 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE GRADUALLY
RELENTING.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT THRU THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
500MB HEAT RIDGE EXTENDS W-E ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER
MS VALLEY, THE NORTHERN LAKES. THE LOCATION OF THIS RIDGE WILL
NOT CHANGE MUCH TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER, THIS FAR EAST, DIGGING
SHORTWAVES IN NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS THIS
RIDGE SOUTHWARD, INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND EVENTUALLY OH
VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP THE HEAT/HUMIDITY IMPROVE AFTER TUESDAY.
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
NORTHERN MI, AND HEAT INDICES ARE CLIMBING TOWARD AND INTO THE
90S FOR MOST. WE WILL SEE DIFFERENCES ON TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS TUESDAY IS NOT AS
RICH/DEEP. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW BL MOISTURE TO
MIX OUT SOMEWHAT IN THE INTERIOR OF NORTHERN LOWER MI AS WE MOVE
THRU THE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY DROPPING TO CLOSE TO 60F, WHILE
MORE MARINE/COASTAL LOCALES STAY IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70F
(THOUGH WITH LESS TOASTY AIR TEMPS). A DOWNSLOPING W TO WNW
SURFACE WIND WILL RESULT IN THE WARMEST TEMPS IN NE LOWER MI.
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAX TEMPS REACHING NEAR 100F FOR
ROGERS/APN/OSC/TAWAS/GLADWIN/STANDISH. IN THE 90S ELSEWHERE.
HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE NEAR 100F IN NE LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MI (THE LATTER THANKS TO MUGGIER AIR IN THE NORTH), AND IN THE
90S OTHERWISE. THIS IS AFTER WARM/STEAMY LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOW/MID 70S.
AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MI.
HEAT INDICES LOOK TO COME UP SHY OF CRITERIA IN NW LOWER MI TUE,
BUT IT WILL BE A 2ND STRAIGHT HOT DAY REGARDLESS. FOLKS STILL
NEED TO BE VERY CAREFUL OUT THERE.
AGAIN, WITH THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE 500MB RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH,
AND WITH NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED, THE
AIRMASS WILL MODERATE SOME AFTER TUESDAY. WED/THU HIGHS ARE
PROGGED IN THE 80S TO LOW/MID 90S, WITH THE WARMEST READINGS IN
THE FAR SE WED.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY REFORMING FURTHER UPSTREAM
IN THE WEST, NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
HERE. AND EVENTUALLY, THIS FLOW WILL CONTAIN SOME RIPPLES.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM, ARRIVE AS SOON AS
THU NIGHT. THOSE POPS PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND, HIGHEST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL ALSO TEND TO SLIDE AS THIS HAPPENS,
WITH WEEKEND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE ISSUANCE PERIOD. PATCHY FG/BR MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOME AREAS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING (INCLUDING MBL), BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THIS TIME. WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS
DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO INCLUDED IN THE TAFS TONIGHT AS WINDS
QUICKLY INCREASE OFF THE SURFACE TO 30+ KTS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ016>018-020>036-
041-042-086>088-095>099.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...DJC
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