468
FXUS63 KAPX 141713
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
113 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID AGAIN TODAY.
- LESS HOT WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH PERIODIC SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
RETURNING FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
- SMOKE FROM ONTARIO WILDFIRES LIKELY TO RESULT IN HAZY SKIES ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY, AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: IMPRESSIVE HEAT DOME REMAINS IN CONTROL
TODAY ACROSS THE NATION'S MIDSECTION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF HOT AND
HUMID WEATHER ON TAP LOCALLY. HOWEVER, DIGGING MID-LEVEL WAVES IN
NORTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS THIS HEAT DOME
SOUTHWARD, ALLOWING HEAT/HUMIDITY TO IMPROVE WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
WHILE NO GLARING PRECIP CONCERNS ARE SEEN THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK, THERE'S GRADUALLY INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN OF
SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST DETAILS: PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE NEAR-TERM SOLELY REVOLVED
AROUND ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
INHERITED HEAT ADVISORIES IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPERATURES SPANNING THE 90S. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR A HANDFUL
OF LOCATIONS TO REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS
DOWNSLOPING NORTHEAST LOWER, ESPECIALLY NEAR SAGINAW BAY. HIGHEST
HEAT INDICES FOLLOW THAT FOOTPRINT AS WELL -- RANGING FROM THE MID
90S TO LOW 100S (HIGHEST EAST OF I-75). OCCASIONAL BREEZINESS UP TO
20-25 MPH MAY PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF AT TIMES, BUT STILL A
HOT DAY NO MATTER HOW YOU SLICE IT.
AS WAS ALLUDED TO ABOVE, HEAT DOME BEGINS TO GET PUSHED FARTHER
SOUTH STARTING TONIGHT, AND MORE SO WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS A RESULT, BUT LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTIES AROUND JUST WARM WE'RE ABLE TO GET WEDNESDAY DUE
TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM ONTARIO TO
FILTER IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. LATEST SUITE OF SMOKE-
ALLOWING GUIDANCE DEPICTS AT LEAST LOW CONCENTRATIONS OF UPPER-
LEVEL SMOKE FILTERING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. AND TIP OF THE
MITT LATER TODAY, WITH CONCENTRATIONS (BOTH ALOFT AND NEAR-
SURFACE) REALLY RAMPING UP LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LONGER RANGE HI-RES VISIBILITY PROGS PICKING UP ON THIS AS WELL,
WITH FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO SMOKE. ASSUMING THIS COMES TO FRUITION,
WEDNESDAY'S FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN REAL JEOPARDY OF BEING
SEVERAL DEGREES TOO HIGH. ALREADY BUMPED TEMPS DOWN A HANDFUL
OF DEGREES AREA-WIDE, BUT THAT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. AIR QUALITY
ISSUES LIKELY TO BECOME A CONCERN AS WELL. POTENTIAL FOR HAZY
SKIES/SMOKE TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.
BY LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND, AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO RETURN AS MORE ACTIVE
MID-UPPER LEVELS EVENTUALLY PREVAIL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
RETURN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND (HIGHEST FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
SMOKE PLUME TO CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN WITH MVFR VISBYS EXPECTED; COULD
DROP LOWER AT TIMES ESP FOR CIU/PLN, AND ESP GOING INTO WED. HAVE
THIS AS HZ IN TAFS ATTM WITH GENERALLY MVFR VISBYS, BUT COULD GO
DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES, ESP WED WITH SMOKE PLUME OVERHEAD. A FEW
DAYTIME CLOUDS TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS EUP ATTM (BASES 3-5KFT) BUT
NOT EXPECTING A LOT TODAY. NOT EXPECTING LLWS AS MUCH TONIGHT AS
LAST NIGHT, BUT COULD BE PRESENT AT CIU/PLN AND PERHAPS APN. WINDS
GENERALLY WNW TO W TODAY 5-15KTS, SHOULD BECOME LIGHT/VRB OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME LAND BREEZES POSSIBLE. THINK THERE IS A SHOT AT SOME TSRA
OVERNIGHT ESP FOR CIU/PLN WITH A BOUNDARY SINKING IN BETWEEN 1-9Z,
BUT NOT A SURE BET. CONFIDENCE MUCH LOWER ELSEWHERE BUT IF IT OCCURS
WOULD BE TOWARD 10-15Z FOR REMAINING TAF SITES. SOME FOG COULD
DEVELOP AGAIN AT MBL BUT NOT CONFIDENT ATTM.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016>018-
020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LHZ345>347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344-345.
DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...FEF
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