841
FXUS63 KAPX 151722
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
122 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE/HAZE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY WEEK HEAT DOME IN THE PROCESS OF
SAGGING FARTHER SOUTH, EXPECTED TO BE STRETCHED FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO APPALACHIA AND THE SOUTHEAST STATES. BROAD
TROUGHING AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OVER EASTERN CANADA EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SAG INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL LOCALLY,
WHICH WILL BRING SMOKE CONCERNS IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
AN EVENTUAL RETURN OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST DETAILS: PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO
REVOLVE AROUND SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN ONTARIO THAT'S ALREADY BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS PARTS OF THE U.P. EARLY THIS MORNING (ERY/ISQ/CYAM
HAVE OBSERVED VARYING VSBY DROPS AS A RESULT OF HZ/FU). THIS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MI THIS MORNING
WITH FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT VSBY DROPS POSSIBLE (PROGGED AT 1-4 MILES IN
THE MAJORITY OF LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE). ASIDE FROM AIR QUALITY
ISSUES, THIS LIKELY TO LIMIT DAYTIME WARMING TO AN EXTENT TODAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY. HAVE ONCE AGAIN KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BOTH DAYS (A COMMON THEME THE LAST SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES),
AND HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE THAT THEY'RE LOW ENOUGH IF WE REALIZE
THICKER SMOKE AND LOWER VSBYS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES EVENTUALLY REENTER THE FORECAST TOWARD THE TAIL
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS SEVERAL MORE NOTABLE (ESPECIALLY SATURDAY)
DIG INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. MAINLY CHANCE POPS FRIDAY
INCREASE TO LIKELY AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST
TRENDS FAVOR DRIER CONDITIONS TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND BEFORE
ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
SMOKE HAS IMPACTED MOSTLY ALL TERMINALS, LOWERING VISIBILITIES
AND EVEN LOWERING CEILINGS IN SOME AREAS. TRENDS SUPPORT SMOKE
CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH IMPACTS REMAINING
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD, OCCASIONALLY BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME
GUIDANCE HOLDING ONTO IFR TO EVEN LIFR CONDTIONS. HAVE TRENDED
LOWER VISIBILITIES LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS, BUT THIS CONTINUES TO BE SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR CLOSELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR LHZ346>348.
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344.
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...NSC
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