508
FXUS63 KAPX 151855
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
255 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE/HAZE THROUGH FRIDAY
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY-SATURDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT
- COOLER NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
IN THE NEAR TERM, A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN MANITOBA TOWARD EASTERN WI. NW LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES EAST OF THIS HIGH, AND WELL IN
ADVANCE OF 500MB RIDGING IN THE PLAINS. LENGTHY BAND OF
CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL WINDS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MID CLOUDS AND A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF VIRGA. A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE IS STILL
MENTIONED IN NORTHERN AREAS INTO LATE AFTERNOON. BUT THE MAIN
IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD SMOKE STEADILY ENCROACHING
ON NORTHERN MI FROM N TO S. VSBYS OF 3/4-2SM ARE COMMON NORTH OF
M-72, 3-5SM TO THE SOUTH.
THE SMOKE SEEMS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER BURST OF
BETTER SMOKE IS WORKING SOUTH TOWARD LK SUPERIOR, AND THIS
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE IN PART TO A LOUSY THURSDAY FROM A SMOKE/AIR
QUALITY STANDPOINT. SURFACE WINDS RELAX A BIT FRIDAY, WITH AN
EVENTUAL EASTERLY BREEZE DEVELOPING. BUT THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY TO
BE ENOUGH TO SERIOUSLY USHER SMOKE OUT OF THE REGION.
SENSIBLE WX OTHER THAN SMOKE IS MINIMAL INTO THURSDAY. SOME
MODELS TRY TO POP A FEW SHOWERS IN CENTRAL WI TONIGHT, EXTENDING
E AND ESE-WARD FROM THE MSP AREA. THIS IS JUST SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. BUT THIS ACTIVITY STRUGGLES TO WORK ACROSS
LAKE MI OVERNIGHT, AND EVEN IF IT DOES, IT IS MOST LIKELY TO DO
SO TO OUR SOUTH. A MORE PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROF IS STILL
PROGGED TO CROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES SATURDAY, INCREASING FORCING
AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT. A BROAD AREA OF MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1K
J/KG DEVELOPS FRIDAY IN THE WESTERN LAKES, UPSTREAM OF US
INITIALLY. BUT THAT WILL HELP FEED ACTIVITY MOVING INTO OUR
AREA. AFTER AN INITIAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER FRIDAY, SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FRI
NIGHT, WITH ISOLATED RAIN TOTALS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH.
STILL LOOKS LIKE WE DRY OUT FOR A BIT TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND,
BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE RETURN SHOWERS MONDAY AND BEYOND.
TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
SMOKE HAS IMPACTED MOSTLY ALL TERMINALS, LOWERING VISIBILITIES
AND EVEN LOWERING CEILINGS IN SOME AREAS. TRENDS SUPPORT SMOKE
CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH IMPACTS REMAINING
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD, OCCASIONALLY BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME
GUIDANCE HOLDING ONTO IFR TO EVEN LIFR CONDTIONS. HAVE TRENDED
LOWER VISIBILITIES LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS, BUT THIS CONTINUES TO BE SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR CLOSELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ346>348.
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344.
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...NSC
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