051
FXUS63 KAPX 311501
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1101 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
-HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND SUPPORTS QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1006MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE
IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN EASTERN MISSOURI. A COLD FRONT
LIES TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...
DON'T THINK THIS FRONT IS PART OF THE LOW OVER IOWA AS THERE IS A
NARROW BAND OF LOWER THETA-E AIR WRAPPING INTO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
CYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA (AND MARKS THE
EASTERN/NORTHERN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT). SEVERAL HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC WITH A 1016MB
HIGH CENTER OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROLLING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH BROADLY DIFLUENT
FLOW AHEAD OF IT...SUPPORTING AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO MISSOURI. MORE WIDESPREAD DEFORMATION RAIN
BAND ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AROUND THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL CYCLONE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
NARROW AXIS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2.00 INCHES
SPANS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPSTREAM LOW.
12Z APX SOUNDING DOES SHOWS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALREADY IN
PLACE...600J/KG MUCAPE WITH MINIMAL CINH. SOME CONVECTION POPPED
EARLIER IN THE VICINITY OF GREEN BAY...OTHERWISE SKIES WERE MOSTLY
SUNNY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT MID MORNING...SOME THICKER
AC SPREADING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND SOME ST/FOG ALONG UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER INTO THE SOO. LOTS OF DEBRIS CI
ARRIVING FROM UPSTREAM IN ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
MIDWEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
WILL BE WATCHING FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON...FOCUSING ON COLLIDING LAKE BREEZES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AS WELL AS NORTHEAST LOWER THE LAKE HURON BREEZE. BUT
MAY ALSO SEE AN EASTWARD EXPANSION OF ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN/FAR WESTERN UPPER LATER TODAY WITH INCREASED INFLUENCE/
BETTER FORCING FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH (MAINLY NORTH OF
THE M-72 CORRIDOR).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO OCCUPY NORTH AMERICA TODAY WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW AND EMBEDDED WAVES OVER CANADA WHILE WEAK SUBTROPICAL
FLOW REMAINS OVER THE MID U.S. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA WILL DIG AND DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
PROGRESSES OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY THIS WEEKEND. SUBSEQUENT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST THIS SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY BENIGN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL DROP H8
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TEENS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 70S THIS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM BROAD
MIDLEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MID/SOUTHERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN AND
EXTEND ITS AXIS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND OVERALL
QUIET WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES
DEPICT MIDLEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE ALASKAN
BAY PROGRESSING DOWNSTREAM AND LIFTING ACROSS THE
AMERICAN/CANADIAN PLAINS BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE FORECAST AROUND THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO KEEP HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF QPF LOW.
FORECAST DETAILS:
TODAY AND SATURDAY: THE ONLY REAL ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS REMAINS TODAY AND SATURDAY, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS AND DIGGING ACROSS
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE MAIN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS MOISTURE EXTENDS
NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. WHILE CONVECTIVE-DRIVEN RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN UPPER, LIGHT STRATIFORM RAINFALL
WILL OCCUPY MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER. WHILE MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER CAN
EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN A TENTH TO HALF AN INCH, THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINING NORTH OF THE BRIDGE WILL SUPPORT MUCH
HIGHER TOTALS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS MACKINAC AND CHIPPEWA COUNTIES
DEPICT LONG SKINNY CAPE, PWAT’S CLOSE TO 2” AND LOW CLOUD LAYER
SHEAR TO SUPPORT TRAINING STORMS TO DELIVER EVENT TOTALS OF TWO
TO THREE PLUS INCHES BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGING PATTERN THIS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST, WITH
CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGHS
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST. NO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE END OF THE LONG-
TERM FORECAST AS ENSEMBLES DEPICT LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING LIFTING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. PROBABILITIES OF QPF
REMAIN LOW IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME, WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
REMAINING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH FOR THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS AND FOG AT CIU SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICK
WITH PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM BECOMES
POSSIBLE AT SOME TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. EVENTUALLY, LOWER CIGS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS BY LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...JPB
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...MJG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page