741
FXUS63 KAPX 010624
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
224 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-ONGOING SHOWERS CONTINUE TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE.
-COOL AND QUIET WEATHER RETURNS THIS SUNDAY. HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 70S
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
-OVERALL QUIET CONDITIONS PERSIST NEXT WEEK WITH LIMITED SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES BEYOND MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
SPLIT MIDLEVEL FLOW OVER THE CONUS CONTINUES TO PERIODICALLY PUNT
WAVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS WITH SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLIPPER SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE
DOWNSTREAM SUNDAY MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEGINS TO DRY OUT THE
LOW LEVELS. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY WITH BREEZY POST FRONTAL WINDS
THIS SUNDAY AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
TYPICAL NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER PERSISTS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE DOWNSTREAM 500MB RIDGING PATTERN CURRENTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE AND BENIGN WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS ON
WEDNESDAY AS LARGE-SCALE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY EXTENDS
A TROUGHING REGIME INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND PIVOTS WAVES OF ENERGY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LONG-
RANGE ENSEMBLES DEPICT JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
CREATE SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT THE LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL OR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW.
FORECAST DETAILS:
TODAY AND SUNDAY: ONGOING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SOME
HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL CREATE SCATTERED EMBEDDED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH AND A HALF, THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS, PARTICULARLY IN
EASTERN UPPER AND SOME PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER. SUBSIDENCE WILL
BUILD ALOFT THIS SUNDAY AND BEGIN TO DRY OUT PROFILES ACROSS THE
CWA. BREEZY POST-FRONTAL WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL
CREATE CONDITIONS FEEL LIKE EARLY FALL RATHER THAN EARLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: MIDLEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST, RETURNING TYPICAL NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUMMER
CONDITIONS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT WINDS AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RECOVER BACK TO CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL.
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NO
PRECIPITATION THIS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OUTLOOK: MIDLEVEL TROUGHING CURRENTLY OFF
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND DEVELOP LARGE SCALE
LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY. EMBEDDED HEIGHT WAVES WILL PIVOT
ACROSS THE MIDWEST THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEYOND THE MIDWEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN REMAINS ON WEDNESDAY AS A DISHEVELED COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. CURRENT MODELS DEPICT MOISTURE BEING CUT OFF FROM THE
SOUTH AND RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING LEADING TO ONLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
AND SCATTERED STORMS. LOW CHANCES OF RAIN REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
CREATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, BUT AGAIN, NO HEAVY RAINFALL OR
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL INCREASINGLY PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS WILL TEND TO LOWER WITH
TIME. MVFR DEVELOPS EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AND IFR
SHOULD DEVELOP AT CIU. LIGHT WINDS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...JZ
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