811
FXUS63 KAPX 021027
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
627 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
-SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE MIDWEST BEYOND
THE MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
MIDLEVEL TROUGHING WITH ITS AXIS CUTTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS MORNING WILL KEEP A COOLER, CANADIAN AIR MASS INFLUENCE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND TAKE RAINFALL WITH IT. NO IMPACTFUL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD DUE TO UPSTREAM 500MB
RIDGING PATTERN BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA REGION
WILL PROGRESS TOWARD HUDSON BAY THIS WEDNESDAY. WAVES OF ENERGY WILL
PIVOT ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIMEFRAME IS EXPECTED TO HAVE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
WEATHER WITH SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FROM THESE WAVES WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AT TIMES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST DETAILS:
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE THIS MORNING AS UPSTREAM SUBSIDENCE DRIES OUT
PROFILES ALOFT. SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST NORTHERN
LOWER, BUT AREAS THAT DO OBSERVE RAIN CAN ONLY EXPECT A GENERAL
TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. EXPECT SKY COVER TO CLEAR TODAY WITH POST-
FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS TO CREATE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOL
TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM RIDGING EXTENDING
THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.
THE NEXT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AND DEVELOPS CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND BEGINS TO PIVOT WAVES OF ENERGY BEYOND
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE DEPICTS A DISHEVELED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE CWA, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF QPF REMAINING AT
OR BELOW A QUARTER INCH. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL LOOK SIMILAR
TO WEDNESDAY'S OUTLOOK WITH PERIODIC PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION
CHANCES AT TIMES, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN PARTLY
SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. NO STRONG STORMS OR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
PATCHES OF MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS, ALONG WITH SPOTTY
SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF ACROSS THE NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TERMINAL AREA THIS MORNING. ONCE THIS OCCURS, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z TAF VALID TIME. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA, ALONG WITH THE END OF DIURNAL EFFECTS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LHZ348-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LMZ323-344>346.
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...PBB
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