621
FXUS63 KAPX 041053
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
653 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME
SHORELINES.
- SHOWER/ THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH OCCASIONAL LOW-END SHOWER CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE PRESSURE REMAIN
IN CONTROL TO START THE PERIOD, SUPPORTING ANOTHER QUIET AND DRY
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS RIDGE WILL STEADILY SHIFT
EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WITH BREEZY TO
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS ARRIVING LATER
IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THERE REMAINS A
CHANCE THAT A BROKEN LINE OF OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS AND REACHES EASTERN UPPER AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER
LIMITED, WHILE THE STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO REMAIN
DISPLACED FARTHER WEST. AS A RESULT, ORGANIZED OR SEVERE
CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING STRENGTHENS. WHILE THE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING DUE TO THE MORE NOCTURNAL
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, SATURATED PROFILES THROUGH THE
COLUMN WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
THE MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS. THE SLOW EAST-SOUTHEAST
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW LOCALIZED HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE BETTER
COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD NORTHEAST LOWER EARLY
BEFORE RETREATING TOWARD THE SAGINAW BAY REGION AND FARTHER
SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/ EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL
REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WPC CONTINUING TO
HIGHLIGHT THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A BIT COOLER WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT, AIDED BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS CONSIDERABLY QUIETER AS
COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BENEATH BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH NO PARTICULARITY STRONG SYSTEMS ARE
EVIDENT, SUBTLE WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL LOW-END SHOWER CHANCES FROM
TIME TO TIME. HOWEVER, MANY LOCATIONS LOOK TO EXPERIENCE
EXTENDED DRY PERIODS BETWEEN ANY PASSING DISTURBANCES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO EARLY AUGUST
NORMALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND POSSIBLE HEADING INTO HE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
VFR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE 12Z TAF VALID TIME WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED.
THEN, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY DEGRADE TO MVFR AS A COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/STORMS START TO WORK THEIR WAY
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY, BEFORE TRENDING MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES IN.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ024-095.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LHZ345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR LHZ348-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
DISCUSSION...NSC
AVIATION...PBB
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