234
FXUS63 KAPX 042337
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
737 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS, WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, SET TO SPREAD SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF SOME APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
- PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL WITHIN THE RANGE OF WHAT IS
CONSIDERED NORMAL HEADING INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF AUGUST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
MAIN FEATURE OF SHORT TERM INTEREST IS BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING MAKING STEADY EAST PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN CANADA. HEIGHT FALLS JUST BEGINNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN, WITH A COLD FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS...EXTENDING FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHWEST ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND IOWA. RESPECTABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURGE
ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, AS EVIDENT BY TONGUE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. COMPLETE DETACHMENT OF BETTER
FORCING, BOTH TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH, HAS GREATLY LIMITED
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A BIT OF A
WARM ONE OTHERWISE, WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND STILL
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HELPING DRIVE TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 80S ACROSS
A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHWOODS.
TROUGHING AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS INTO AND ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
KICKING OFF A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE PROCESS. NOW
RATHER EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT BROAD TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER RIGHT INTO THE EARLY STAGES OF NEXT WEEK, KEEPING ANY REAL
HEAT SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH ANY PASSING EMBEDDED WAVES.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
SHOWER AND STORM EVOLUTION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. FOCUS SHIFTS TO
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND ADDRESSING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DETAILS:
UPSTREAM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, PERHAPS EVEN STALLING AT TIMES AS WEAK
WAVES (CONVECTIVELY AGITATED?) WORK NORTHEAST ALONG IT. EXPECT
SHOWER COVERAGE TO INCREASE AND BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS OVERHEAD MOISTURE PROFILES INCREASE AND BECOME
INCREASINGLY COUPLED WITH CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
UPPER JET DYNAMICS. SOME EMBEDDED STORMS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN BREADTH
OF FORCING AND MOISTURE, BUT OVERALL LIMITED CAPE SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK ON ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. FOCUS FOR MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DOES SPREAD SOUTHEAST WITH TIME, WITH THE TARGET
AREA FOR BETTER RAIN AMOUNTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THURSDAY CENTERING ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...AND ESPECIALLY
DOWN NEAR SAGINAW BAY. MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE
REMAINS UNDER MARGINAL RISK WORDING FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT TRENDS DO SUPPORT ANY HIGH END RAIN TOTALS
REMAINING ISOLATED AT BEST...WITH MUCH BETTER HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR A BIT MORE
PROGRESSION TO THE FRONT ON THURSDAY, SUGGESTING MOST OF THE ACTIVE
WEATHER EXITING OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORT A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE TROUGHING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE HARD TO OFFER ANY REAL SPECIFICS,
ANY PASSING WAVES IN WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY KICK OFF SOME
SHOWERS AT TIMES (BUT CURRENTLY NOT SEEING ANY EVIDENCE FOR
PROLONGED PERIODS OF WET WEATHER). IF SOME MORE OF THE AGGRESSIVE
TROUGH DIGGING SCENARIOS ARE REALIZED, DEFINITELY COULD SEE A BIT
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN OUR
FORECAST. PLENTY OF TIME OF COURSE FOR FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSRA DEVELOP TONIGHT, PERSISTING INTO WED,
ENDING AT CIU/PLN/TVC/MBL DURING THE DAY. CIGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER,
WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
WILL BE LATE TONIGHT. ONGOING BREEZY S TO SW WINDS WILL GO LIGHT
TONIGHT, REMAINING SO WEDNESDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ024-095.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ348-
349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...JZ
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