118
FXUS63 KAPX 051803
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
203 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER/ THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
BROAD TROUGHING AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WAY. FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, SHOWER
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE AS DEEPER MOISTURE
SPREADS OVERHEAD AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY COUPLED WITH STRONGER
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT. THE BETTER FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS FAVORED ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER, PARTICULARLY TOWARD THE SAGINAW BAY REGION. LOCALIZED
HEAVIER RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH WPC CONTINUING TO
HIGHLIGHT MOSTLY ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR TODAY.
GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO FAVOR A LITTLE MORE FORWARD PROGRESS
WITH THE FRONT ON THURSDAY, ALLOWING THE BETTER SHOWER CHANCES
TO GRADUALLY EXIT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOOKING BEYOND THURSDAY, OVERALL FORECAST THINKING REMAINS
LARGELY UNCHANGED, WITH THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY MEANINGFUL HEAT
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH WHILE ALSO MAINTAINING PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AS SUBTLE WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE
MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THAT SAID, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
LITTLE INDICATION OF ANY PROLONGED STRETCH OF WET WEATHER, WITH
DRY PERIODS LIKELY SEPARATING ANY PASSING DISTURBANCES AND
PERHAPS COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...EXCEPT FOR PREVAILING IFR AT MBL (POCKET OF COLDER WATER
IN THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE MAY BE AIDING IN SOME ADVECTION
FOG DEVELOPMENT)...AND MAINLY VFR AT KCIU. EXPECTATION IS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/
EVENING GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND INCREASING FORCING.
ANTICIPATE A RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS AT THE NORTHERN LOWER
TERMINALS BETWEEN THE RAIN AND FOG/STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NSC
AVIATION...JPB
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