014
FXUS63 KAPX 060618
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
218 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER/ THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TODAY, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION ACROSS MICHIGAN,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, BUT PERHAPS IT MAY STALL NEAR SAGINAW BAY?
HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH/ MOVE LARGELY OUT OF THE
AREA BY AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER (SOME LINGERING
CHANCES NEAR SAGINAW BAY IF THE FRONT DOES STALL IN THAT
VICINITY AS BEING ADVERTISED). NORTHEAST LOWER, REMAINS THE AREA
MOST FAVORED FOR MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY, WHERE MORE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS LOOK TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION INTO PERHAPS
THE EARLY AFTERNOON, ESPECAILLY FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS NEAR SAGINAW
BAY. LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER HAVE REPORTED RECEIVING
AROUND ROUGHLY 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM LAST EVENING/ LAST NIGHTS
SHOWERS. A FEW SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER BETWEEN THE DEPARTING FRONT AND
THE NEXT INCOMING DISTURBANCE.
FORECAST THINKING BEYOND FRIDAY REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. A
BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, KEEPING ANY MEANINGFUL HEAT DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH WHILE
MAINTAINING A GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITHIN
THAT FLOW, SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW REGARDING THE
EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES. AS A RESULT,
MAINTAINING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL FOR EARLY AUGUST, THOUGH HIGHS COULD
TREND A BIT LOWER SHOULD A MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERY SCENARIO ULTIMATELY MATERIALIZES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT...
ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL
BE LIKELY THIS EVENING AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER THE RAIN
ENDS, RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH
FOG/STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
SUNSHINE AND DRIER WEATHER.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NSC
AVIATION...JK
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