945
FXUS63 KAPX 061735
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
135 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER/ THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TODAY, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF A OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERING ACROSS THE TIP OF THE THUMB AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
(NORTH OF LAN BUT SOUTH OF GRR); BOUNDARY STUCK WITHIN A BROADER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NORTHWEST-
SOUTHEAST ORIENTED MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS
MORNING: PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR BELOW 0.75 INCH ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN...AND NEAR 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER (1.01
INCHES OFF THE 12Z APX SOUNDING/1.48 INCHES AT DTX). FAIRLY
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH/DYNAMIC PV ANOMALY SWEEPING ACROSS
WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ALREADY SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST LOWER PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
THE "DRY" SIDE OF THE MOISTURE GRADIENT. AREA OF ST AND LIFTING
FOG ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH SOME SC ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
AND SUNNY SKIES OVER EASTERN UPPER FARTHER INTO THE DRIER AIR.
ONLY PRECIPITATION IN LOWER MICHIGAN WAS NEAR THE BOUNDARY OVER
THE THUMB.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. BEST CHANCE FOR RENEWED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE ALONG THE LAKE HURON
LAKE BREEZE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION ACROSS MICHIGAN,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, BUT PERHAPS IT MAY STALL NEAR SAGINAW BAY?
HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH/ MOVE LARGELY OUT OF THE
AREA BY AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER (SOME LINGERING
CHANCES NEAR SAGINAW BAY IF THE FRONT DOES STALL IN THAT
VICINITY AS BEING ADVERTISED). NORTHEAST LOWER, REMAINS THE AREA
MOST FAVORED FOR MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY, WHERE MORE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS LOOK TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION INTO PERHAPS
THE EARLY AFTERNOON, ESPECAILLY FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS NEAR SAGINAW
BAY. LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER HAVE REPORTED RECEIVING
AROUND ROUGHLY 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM LAST EVENING/ LAST NIGHTS
SHOWERS. A FEW SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER BETWEEN THE DEPARTING FRONT AND
THE NEXT INCOMING DISTURBANCE.
FORECAST THINKING BEYOND FRIDAY REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. A
BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, KEEPING ANY MEANINGFUL HEAT DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH WHILE
MAINTAINING A GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITHIN
THAT FLOW, SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW REGARDING THE
EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES. AS A RESULT,
MAINTAINING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL FOR EARLY AUGUST, THOUGH HIGHS COULD
TREND A BIT LOWER SHOULD A MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERY SCENARIO ULTIMATELY MATERIALIZES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
LINGERING LOW LEVEL CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY
MOSTLY SKC TONIGHT COMBINED WITH LIGHT AND VRB WINDS. BR WILL
DEVELOP AT KMBL, DROPPING VSBYS TO MVFR AND PERIODICALLY IFR
BETWEEN 0600Z AND 1300Z TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS VEER
TO THE WEST THIS FRIDAY WITH SCT LOW LEVEL CU RE-DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE DAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...JPB
DISCUSSION...NSC
AVIATION...SJC
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