208
FXUS63 KAPX 070618
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
218 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SPOTTY SHOWER/ THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY WITH PERIODIC
CHANCES CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES TREND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME IN
SEVERAL WAVES RATHER THAN A CONTINUOUS PERIOD OF RAIN. A WEAK
MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED WITH ANY SHOWERS FIGHTING A PRETTY DRY
PROFILE. ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER. LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS WEAK, SO CONTINUE
THINKING THAT ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, THEY COULD SQUEAK OUT SOME SMALL HAIL
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS AS THEY PULSE.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.
THE PATTERN TURNS WETTER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WHILE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH THE BROADER FLOW. THIS SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MONDAY INTO AT LEAST PART OF TUESDAY,
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL, ESPECAILLY
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WPC CURRENTLY ADVERTISING A MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS A RESULT. WHILE A LOT OF THE FINER
DETAILS NEED TO BE WORKED OUT, THE OVERALL SIGNAL FOR A WETTER
START TO THE WEEK HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT. BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
PRIMARILY VFR. POTENTIAL FOR BR / FG AT PLN AND MBL MAY REDUCE
FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH MORNING. OTHERWISE, CLOUD DECK SHOULD
HOLD ABOVE 3KFT. POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRA OR TSRA AT APN LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY, TAPERING BY EVENING. NEXT SHRA / TSRA
CHANCES INFILTRATE CIU LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, PERHAPS GUSTING 15KTS+
ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON, TAPERING IN THE EVENING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NSC
AVIATION...HAD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page