065
FXUS63 KAPX 221607
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1207 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- COOL, BREEZY, AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY.
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO START NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1202 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
TROUGHING DRAPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT
WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG JET DIGS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS/MIDWEST TODAY, ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR THE SURFACE
CYCLONE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS IT
WORKS EAST THIS WEEKEND. RIDGING SLIDING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS/CANADIAN PLAINS WILL HELP BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. TROUGHING THEN LOOKS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
FORECAST DETAILS:
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME STRAY SHOWERS ACROSS OTHER AREAS, BUT THE
BULK OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN EAST OF I-75 INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS COINCIDING WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE SO FAR TODAY, THE PRIMARY FOCUS WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING -- WITH REPORTS OF OVER 2" OF
RAINFALL IN LOCALIZED AREAS SO FAR. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN WEAK SHEAR IN
PLACE.
AS A COOLER, RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA WITH
NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUING AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY. IN FACT, OUR FIRST TRUE
TASTE OF FALL MAY BE SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY WITH NOTICEABLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. LITTLE DAYTIME WARMING IS
ANTICIPATED GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CLOUD COVER/SHOWER ACTIVITY --
LIKELY KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE FALL FEEL WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME WATERSPOUTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES NEARSHORE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND GIVEN THE COOL, MOIST AIR PASSING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER
LAKE SURFACE.
LOOKING INTO THE WORK WEEK, RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END BY
MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER IN STORE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
70S ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AS SOME
OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER ON ARRIVAL TIME IN MOST
RECENT RUNS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
AREAS OF LOWER CIGS OUT THERE THIS MORNING, MOST WIDESPREAD IN
NORTHERN LOWER MI (MAINLY MVFR, IN SPOTS IFR). THESE CIGS WILL
TEND TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE ARE ALSO
SOME SHOWERS OUT THERE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TVC. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVIER SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AT APN. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT.
WINDS BECOME NW AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR LHZ345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR LHZ346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR LHZ347-348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR LHZ349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR LMZ345-346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...JZ
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