152
FXUS63 KAPX 241741
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
141 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING BREEZY, DRIZZLY CONDITIONS TODAY...
- RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURN MIDWEEK...
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
BROAD RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US...BUT NORTHERN
AXIS IS BEING SHUNTED EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ATTM AS AN
UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA, DEEPENING AS IT GOES. 560DM
500MB LOW ENCOMPASSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, CENTERED JUST EAST OF
GEORGIAN BAY...WITH A 1003MB OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW AS A RESPONSE.
COLD AIR MASS (+8C AT 850MB OVERHEAD ATTM) ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE RESULTING IN A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AND ATTENDANT 100+KT
UPPER JET WRAPPING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND
UP THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA. RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE
PLAINS AIDING IN A PLUME OF MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM TROUGH, DOWN INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND AROUND TO THE CANADIAN COAST, ALONG/AHEAD OF A SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM DISTURBANCE IN SASKATCHEWAN...WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WRAPPING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WITH STRONG LOW-
LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE SOO INTO LAKE HURON. AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN
WRAPPING DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ATTM WITH A FEW NW
FLOW LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS SHOWING THEIR FACE AS OF 5Z NEAR
AND WEST OF I-75.
RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE OVERHEAD TODAY...AND WILL EXPECT THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER LOW AND FILLING SURFACE LOW TO FURTHER WANE AS WE GO
THROUGH THE DAY. UPSTREAM UPPER LOW CRESTS THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS
TUESDAY AND BEGINS TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...BRINGING OUR NEXT SHOT AT RAIN/STORMS. THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO SLOW A BIT, CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AT SOME POINT
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPSTREAM RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL
CANADA IN ITS WAKE...WITH SOME ENERGY ATTEMPTING TO ENTER WESTERN
CANADA...AND AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER HUDSON BAY THAT SHOULD TRY
TO SCOOP UP OUR MIDWEEK SYSTEM. THIS SUGGESTS WE WILL REMAIN IN THE
PRESENCE OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE FOR LATE WEEK...AND WITH COOL/COLD,
CYCLONIC FLOW INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER AGAIN, WOULD ANTICIPATE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. ATTM...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK, DEPENDING ON
WHEN PACIFIC ENERGY ATTEMPTS TO EJECT THROUGH THE FLOW, WHICH SHOULD
INCREASE RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL US AND SHOULD KEEP THE
UNSETTLED IDEA GOING INTO THE END OF AUGUST. RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL
CANADA MAY GET PINCHED QUITE TIGHTLY, BUT THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS IT
MAY TRY TO HOLD ON GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AND WILL CERTAINLY NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR SOME KIND OF BLOCKING PATTERN TO DEVELOP
TO OUR NORTH.
FORECAST DETAILS...
LINGERING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 10-15KTS, BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
DIMINISHING, AND THINK THERE IS A REASONABLE SHOT WE COULD END UP
WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AFTER DARK TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. PLUME OF RICHER MOISTURE (BOTH IN AN ABSOLUTE AND RELATIVE
SENSE) LOOKS SLOW TO DEPART, ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST LOWER, AND THINK
THIS IS WHERE THERE WILL BE A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING MORE PERSISTENT
RAIN/DRIZZLE TODAY...THOUGH NOT IMPOSSIBLE THINGS COULD STAY A
LITTLE MORE DRIZZLY NEAR GAYLORD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPING
THROUGH THE DAY, AND THERE COULD BE AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A NIBLET OF PV LOOKING TO SWING THROUGH. HOWEVER,
THERE ARE NOT TERRIBLY STRONG SIGNALS FOR FORCING ATTM, AND HAVE
SUSPICIONS WE MAY NOT END UP WITH MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED/BROKEN
STRATOCU.
RAIN/STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...WE COULD START TO SEE THE
FIRST INKLINGS OF AT LEAST MID/HIGH CLOUDS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...THOUGH NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
MAY TRY TO SNEAK IN DURING THIS TIME. BETTER THETA-E ADVECTION
ENTERS THE SCENE TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE A LITTLE BETTER UPSTREAM AHEAD OF THE DIGGING
TROUGH, AND THIS THIS IS THE MORE LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE IN...PERHAPS AS SOME SORT OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE FEATURE/DYING CONVECTIVE FEATURE THAT CROSSES THE LAKE?
THOUGH THIS COULD BRING A WARM NOSE THAT COULD TAKE MOST OF THE DAY
TO OVERCOME...BUT IT CURRENTLY APPEARS WE HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, WHICH COULD
BECOME SURFACE-BASED IN THE AFTERNOON IF WE WARM ENOUGH. WITH
MARGINAL (30ISH KTS, GIVE OR TAKE) DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN PLAY, THINK
WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AS WELL.
ABSOLUTE MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, PERHAPS UP TOWARDS
1.5IN...AND WITH SIGNALS FOR REASONABLE SYNOPTIC FORCING TO WORK
WITH, AND PERHAPS NOT OVERLY FAST STORM MOTIONS...WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL RIGHT ON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BE THE YOOP,
CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING WITH POTENTIAL FOR A NIBLET TO LIFT OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH (SORT OF A MADDOX SYNOPTIC TYPE HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT, FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...THOUGH WE
LACK THE JET COUPLING USUALLY INVOLVED IN THAT SETUP).
ATTM...PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE IS A 20-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SOME PORTION OF THE EUP SEEING AN INCH OF RAIN IN 24HRS
DURING THE WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL HAVE A COUPLE DAYS TO
NAIL DOWN SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS A LITTLE BETTER AND HONE IN ON
ANY HIGHER QPF BULLSEYES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
CURRENT MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ALL SITES
BECOMING VFR THIS EVENING. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
BR WITH PATCHY FG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, DROPPING VSBYS AND CIGS TO
MVFR AND IFR MAINLY BETWEEN 0600Z AND 1200Z. VFR WILL QUICKLY
BUILD TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016-
018-020-024-099.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ347-348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-
322.
DISCUSSION...FEF
AVIATION...SJC
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