217
FXUS63 KAPX 261827
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
227 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
ENERGETIC NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PINWHEEL SOUTH AROUND DEEPER
UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHERN RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD AND
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
A BIGGER PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH RESULTANT
AMPLIFIED INDUCED UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A TREND TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING AS A SECONDARY
TROUGH AXIS DROPS SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN. STILL SOME
QUESTION MARKS ABOUT HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED TODAY.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO RATHER POOR WHICH MAY LIMIT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH. BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE TO KEEP ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. AN ADDITIONAL POCKET OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH OVERNIGHT
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE AREA. THURSDAY WILL HAVE A FEEL OF FALL, WITH LOTS OF
CLOUDS, COOL TEMPERATURES, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE COOL
AIR ALOFT AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
MANY QUESTIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AT LEAST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAKE A RETURN FOR THIS WEEKEND, WHICH
SHOULD EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE DEVELOPING RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
ADDITIONAL SCT -SHRA AND -TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CAUSING TEMPORARY FLIGHT CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS. CEILING HEIGHTS LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH PATCHY BR AT
KCIU, KAPN, AND KPLN. SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH LINGERING
-DZ AND MOSTLY MVFR CIG’S SLOWLY LIFTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ025-031-095.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345-
348-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...SJC
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