430
FXUS63 KAPX 270349
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1149 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE INTO
THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
ENERGETIC NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PINWHEEL SOUTH AROUND DEEPER
UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHERN RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD AND
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
A BIGGER PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH RESULTANT
AMPLIFIED INDUCED UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A TREND TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING AS A SECONDARY
TROUGH AXIS DROPS SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN. STILL SOME
QUESTION MARKS ABOUT HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED TODAY.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO RATHER POOR WHICH MAY LIMIT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH. BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE TO KEEP ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. AN ADDITIONAL POCKET OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH OVERNIGHT
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE AREA. THURSDAY WILL HAVE A FEEL OF FALL, WITH LOTS OF
CLOUDS, COOL TEMPERATURES, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE COOL
AIR ALOFT AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
MANY QUESTIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AT LEAST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAKE A RETURN FOR THIS WEEKEND, WHICH
SHOULD EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE DEVELOPING RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
IN LOW ST/FOG...EXPECT AT LEAST IFR CEILINGS AT KCIU INTO LATE
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE CLOUD DECK BEGINS TO MIX OUT INTO A CU
DECK. ALSO EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT KPLN WITH SIMILAR
IMPROVEMENT LATER THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECTING AT LEAST MVFR
CEILINGS AT KAPN/KTVC THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE AT KMBL
AN INITIALLY HIGHER SC DECK SHOULD THIN OUT OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
FOR SHALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD MIX OUT THURSDAY
MORNING. EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...JPB
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