611
FXUS63 KAPX 271806
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
206 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
SOUTHERN RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF A
DEEPENING PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH. AFTER QUIETER LATE WEEK
WEATHER, WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH INCREASING PWATS WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
WILL RIDE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY LAYED OUT ACROSS THE
AREA, RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WAY UP, WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS
LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS
NORTH AND EAST.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE CLOSER TO LAKE HURON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY, WITH A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT SETTING UP WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S (50S
LAKESHORE) WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL COLDER
LOCATIONS. AREAS OF FOG ALSO LIKELY IN LOW LYING AREAS. QUIET
WEATHER FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
QUESTION MARKS INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING PWATS OF 200% OF NORMAL TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. SATURDAY REMAINS QUESTIONABLE AS TO HOW DRY (OR WET)
IT WILL BE, AS SOME MODELS HOLD BACK THE DEEPER MOISTURE UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE CURRENT THINKING WILL HAVE LOWER
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, INCREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE
DEEPENING WESTERN TROUGH AND MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
IN FAST UPPER FLOW, EXPECT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWER/STORMS
CHANCES FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS HAS SOME CLASSIC SIGNATURES FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WITH AN 850MB FRONT LAYED OUT ACROSS THE AREA, NEAR PARALLEL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY, AND
DEEP MOISTURE. MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SITS IN MARGINAL
EXCESSIVE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DESPITE THE RAIN
CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME
AS THE THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH AND EAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
LOW VFR TO BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS HANG ON FOR ANOTHER HOUR PERHAPS
FOR KAPN BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. CONSEQUENTLY, DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY 10G15-
20KTS, DECREASING TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG, ESP KPLN
AND KMBL, BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT AT THIS JUNCTURE. VFR CONTINUES
INTO FRIDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-
348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...JLD
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